Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

Which date should the meet be held?

  • February 27th 2011

    Votes: 19 59.4%
  • March 6th 2011

    Votes: 8 25.0%
  • March 13th 2011

    Votes: 5 15.6%

  • Total voters
    32
  • Poll closed .

SwingKing

Well-Known Member
A Word on Markets

The long awaited correction seems to have crept in the markets. Personally, I won't hold that opinion as of now. Lets think of this objectively. An uptrend is defined as a scenario where price structure forms higher highs and higher lows. Apart from this, higher Pivot highs and higher Pivot lows are formed. Violation of Pivot must always be considered on closing basis. On intraday basis, pivots are breached, but often retrace back from that breach. Hence, for the sake of simplicity and objectivity, we would want a close below critical pivots.

Currently if we see the price structure of the market, we would find that we are in a strong uptrend. The latest pivot low is 5934 and it is only after violation of this level on closing basis (daily frame) should we assume temporary pause of the uptrend. If however, close is below 5934 on weekly basis, we must definitely brace ourselves to see levels of 5500 - 5700 on intra day basis at least. There is a lot of macro economic development taking place all over the globe and hence sectors related to Realty, Metals, and Currency could gyrate viciously.

For traders, unless and until 5934 is violated on closing basis, one must look to go long. Personally, I would be looking to go long on slightest bit of visible strength. Trades won't be aggressive, but certainly I would rely more on price action than on anticipation. Every Bull run has a phase where prices collapse 10-20% every 12 - 15 months and if the current move is a beginning of that, then long term investors should use this weekend to make a list of stocks which they intend to accumulate.

Tc

 
G

gangadharan

Guest
Raunak Sir,

It seems a Head & shoulder pattern is yet to be confirmed in DLF. I have placed a SL Buy order at 339 and SL sell order at 333. rest of all is with the market to decide.

With regards,
Gangadharan:)

Friends,

It looks like HEAD&SHOULDERS confirmed in the case of DLF. My. SL sell order trigerd and I am still on short.

See the chart how beautifull it looks,

Raunak Sir, S.M. Sir, and all other Gurus may please correct it if I am mistaken.

With Regards,
Gangadharan.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

MurAtt

Well-Known Member
Hi Dan

With hindsight your explanation looks perfect BUT this chart was viewed pretty late ... :( and on seeing position divergence and the 2 long wicks I bot the calls.

Technically SL would have been triggered on the Nifty falling again from those levels .. BUT I am unable to be on screen the whole time and therefore its a bit late to square off BUT still a bounce is still there .... if you see the OI i.e. 1.6 mil OI pls in 6100PEs and it is still No1 in OI terms for PEs for Nov.

We are highly oversold on smaller TFs ... by Monday/Tuesday we should see 6140 imo on Spot.

Fundamentally

The reaction we have got in our markets are not in many ways connected to us i.e. directly .. so I was expecting a bounce today which did not come .. so Monday ...

Money which has exited Korea... where do you think it would go? Either back or .. :D India.


And yes.. a bit of a risk factor is surely there ... and with some good trades behind me this Nov .. I can risk a bit surely for some good returns :D

Hi SM

Some thoughts from outside.

I like the simpleness of your chart. Now, as you say, you are long the call 6100, build up on the decision made with some signals in it, I like to question you this :

If you bought now the 6100 call, I guess it was expensive as it is a call atm.

When your resistance line was touched the third time, why did you not buy there the 6100 put, as it was a put otm ( means it was not to expensive ) and now on the support line you could have sold an expensive atm 6100 call ?

You then could profit from time decay over the weekend :)

DanPickUp
 
*Spatch


But that's what I meant, if I have 2 lacs, then I shouldn't be undertaking a trade in which 1 lac is at risk, right? My stop loss should be @ 2% of my equity.
Yes, on a risk management, what you say is correct. But being under-capitalized leaves you no room to take good trades, say after you had a two consecutive loosing weeks (remember , you also have to consider margin calls). Ex; You start with Rs.100, leaving you with risk exposure of Rs.2. Say after two loosing weeks, you are left with Rs.80 . That means at third week, your risk exposure is limited to Rs.1.60 .. severely limiting the trades you can take.


...All I meant was instead of bailing out of a >10% trend at the levels of 2%, I'd like to be able to stay till about 8-9%,
You know why do Pro's call it Speculation and Not forecast? ... he he he. Remember it never hurt anyone of booking profit early.

What you can however try is to see if you can position out in phased approach. Say when prices reaches your mark of 2% liquidate 1/3 position and raise SL for remaining to your original price+brokerage. Liquidate the next 1/3 at 4% level and so on. Note, i dont do fixed percentage model. This was just to stimulate your thought.



What do you mean by price action, how do you evaluate if it is stalling/showing weakness??
Would be difficult to express this on paper, but i will try. By Price action, i mean price action on my charts (or call it TA ). Shrinking in bar range, sudden wide range bars, hammers, range bound action, etc are something that raises my suspicion. And when this happen near my S/R zones, i bail out. I dont care, if after i bailout the prices resume its original direction.
[/QUOTE]
 
With hindsight your explanation looks perfect BUT this chart was viewed pretty late ... :( and on seeing position divergence and the 2 long wicks I bot the calls.
Hey Murtaza

Just my 2C. Candlestick patterns by themselves are not very reliable. You were right in your call , if considered by themselves alone (in isolation , if i were to see long wicks alone).

BUT, i as a rule always consider the bars before the patterns, also. Also in your chart, it had Wide Range Bar before that hammer. Also always get a confirmation from a higher time frame.
 

SwingKing

Well-Known Member
Friends,

It looks like HEAD&SHOULDERS confirmed in the case of DLF. My. SL sell order trigerd and I am still on short.

See the chart how beautifull it looks,

Raunak Sir, S.M. Sir, and all other Gurus may please correct it if I am mistaken.

With Regards,
Gangadharan.
Gangadharan,

First of all, good work on spotting the pattern.

Now coming to trades. It is one thing to spot a pattern and another thing to trade it profitably. The neckline according to your chart is 344. DLF now has sold off nearly 12% in two days and markets have corrected 800 points. Now given the fact that we are still in Bull market, the chances of markets bouncing back are far more. Hence, DLF could bounce 3-4% in the next 1-2 sessions. This would take the counter to 337 - 338 price levels following which you could have initiated fresh shorts with the neckline level as stop loss. This would have given you a better risk to reward to trade with.

Tc
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
Hi stumper

Just some thought after I had a PM with SM.

Some work better with Bars and some work better with Candles. There is no rule.

I second your view about this : Always check higher time frames then the one you trade, to get a better view about market direction.

I had a PM with SM and my concern was the short time frame and not being able to watch it. He explained clearly, that he not trades futures and so, it is not necessary to stay always in front of the screen.

So, I wish a nice weekend

DanPickUp
 
Last edited:

stockBond

Well-Known Member
Gangadharan,

First of all, good work on spotting the pattern.

Now coming to trades. It is one thing to spot a pattern and another thing to trade it profitably. The neckline according to your chart is 344. DLF now has sold off nearly 12% in two days and markets have corrected 800 points. Now given the fact that we are still in Bull market, the chances of markets bouncing back are far more. Hence, DLF could bounce 3-4% in the next 1-2 sessions. This would take the counter to 337 - 338 price levels following which you could have initiated fresh shorts with the neckline level as stop loss. This would have given you a better risk to reward to trade with.

Tc
Please post views on Sesagoa, Ashokleyland, Denabank for short term till this month end. :(
 

Similar threads