Hi Ruanak Bhai your list of stocks is very very good but I also believe its a contrarian bet on sugar and realty. I think we will see massive gains in real estate stock prices in next year. The profit margins of these companies have started to move up again and companies such as HDIL, Orbit Corp, DLF I believe are very sound. DLF especially has launched 7 New Projects in last 2 months and the rates are very very good the cash flow is generated today although the projects would be finished 2-3 years from now hence the cash flow will be realised in the balance sheet today. I agree with you technically and looking at the price structure it is in pathetic shape. But if we hear the financial news channel and every tom dick harry who buys stock is asking to stay away from this sector.
I would also go as far as to say if Indian economy does well in the long run these would be the stock where you will see maximum appreciation in 2-3 years time as almost every other sector is valued almost perfectly. I believe this sector is undervalued and to get Real estate stocks at P/E of around 12-15 is insanely cheap. This sector in my view has the potential to show outrageous gain if we are in a long term bull market which we will be if we breach 6380. These stocks can zoom 10-15 times from current valuation. I might look like a fool who is advising on buying realty sector when everyone else is ubber bearish on it but I believe the prices are undervalued a book value of 170 for HDIL which means if the company becomes insolvent even today the stock is worth Rs170. A Reliance industry with a limited future growth due to huge amount of cash sitting on balance sheet and not being put to use is valued at 6 times more than the book value.
Now coming back to sugar sector the price of stocks last time sugar was at 29 Cent per pound was around 40-50% higher from current level. In the last quarter the margins of sugar company would have significantly improved because in May when these stocks fell like there is no tomorrow the sugar dropped a whopping 60-65% in the international market thanks mainly to the excessive estimated sugar cane production in India and Brasil. No one counted Pakistan, Pakistan has the best quality of sugar in the world although the production is not very high but still it is a significant sugar producer and in my state in Rajasthan there are huge quantity of sugar being imported from there. However, with floods in Pakistan the sugar production fell and it natually came under control hence the sugar price in the international market rallied back 120% and is back to 28 cent/ lb from 12-14 cent in May-June.
I think this will definitely have a positive impact on the sugar stocks too! Attaching the chart below:
My stocks would be:
Orbit Corp
DLF
Unitech
Bajaj Hind
Triveni
Renuka
GMR Infra
HCC
Emmami Infra
JP Associate
Disclamer: I might be completely wrong and these stocks I mentioned are in bear market territory and its just my view that I am expressing which might be completely flawed.
Punj LLoyds in addition to those mentioned by you. I would be outrageous enough to say that I would invest my major chunk in these stocks.