Trading With CrossOver And BB

[jace48]

Ever Since You Brought Up The EMA, My Mind Has Been Buzzing On This & In My Quest For Things Simple, I Am Posting This Chart Of ABAN Based On Just One Single EMA-20.

Your Opinion Shall Be Of Great Importance, In Taking This Forward.

Sorry for thread jacking the question but wouldn't each EMA respond differently to different stocks? I mean a 20 EMA that is working for ABAN may or may not work for others.

[/COLOR]

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Jace,

Would Be Better To Have Asked The Q After Having Seen It Across Some More Stocks.....Therefore, Check It & Let Me Know If You Come Across Exceptions.

Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde

Sorry for thread jacking the question but wouldn't each EMA respond differently to different stocks? I mean a 20 EMA that is working for ABAN may or may not work for others.

 

[jace48]

Would Be Better To Have Asked The Q After Having Seen It Across Some More Stocks.....Therefore, Check It & Let Me Know If You Come Across Exceptions.[/COLOR]

It was just a thought that came to my mind and due to no homework I withdraw my statement.

Update: Just had a look on daily charts of TCS with 20 LMA, 20 years resolution. Total transaction 75 profit of -933.72. Infosys 192 Transaction -231 profit. May be this is an exception and might not be applicable to basket of stocks in which a money as a whole is in.

 

[Nava]

Hi CNB,

3) From third chart (based on linear regression) the close is approaching the sell trigger line (or you can call it trailing stop loss line). The trigger would be activated if ABAN closes below 996 on Monday.

-Anant

Hi Anant,

Thanks for your Aban Charts. Could u pl explain,

How to draw/plot trailing stop loss line shown in aban Chart..?

Nava,

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Jace,

Just Checked On TCS Chart, Just For Last Couple Of Years, Yes It Does Exhibit A Lot Of Whipsaw....Therefore, Probably Wouldn't Be A Bad Idea To Check On The Sector & Its Trend As Well.

Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde

It was just a thought that came to my mind and due to no homework I withdraw my statement.

Update: Just had a look on daily charts of TCS with 20 LMA, 20 years resolution. Total transaction 75 profit of -933.72. Infosys 192 Transaction -231 profit. May be this is an exception and might not be applicable to basket of stocks in which a money as a whole is in.

 

[asnavale]

Hi Anant,

Thanks for your Aban Charts. Could u pl explain,

How to draw/plot trailing stop loss line shown in aban Chart..?

Nava,

Hi Nava,

This is a work still under progress. I have to discuss with seniors to iron out some of the issues. It would then be put in the forum for a wider scrutiny by all members.

-Anant

 

[asnavale]

Hi Anant,

Something Else That I Noticed On The Chart Of ABAN Posted By You, Is The Inverted 'V' Shape Of The Upper BB, Now The Question Remains Whether We Shall Witness As Big An Inverted 'V Like The Earlier One...But On The Earlier One Price Hasn't Corrected As Much As The Present One.

Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde

Dear Savant,

The earlier correction was about 32% which is a little less than first Fibonacci level where as the recent correction is about 65% which is a bit more than 2nd Fibo level. The earlier V on upper and lower BB were with a more acute vertex angle but the recent ones are a bit wider. As the last bar is higher than the previous, it has pulled the BBs a little wider and if the price continues to rise they will be further widened and the upward movemrnt will continue. But another important sign is the angle of th 5/6 moving averages (both SMA & EMA). They are very steeply coming down and their reverse cross-over is likely to be delayed unless there is another big expansion in coming days.

The Moving averages and the BBs are showing a little bit different behaviour. The MA lines are suggesting a further fall faster but the BBs are indicating a slower move. Therefore a big break out or break down only will bring both of these in same direction.

Only time will tell the real story. Till then keep the fingers crossed.

Regards

-Anant

 

[asnavale]

Hi Anant,

Ever Since You Brought Up The EMA, My Mind Has Been Buzzing On This & In My Quest For Things Simple, I Am Posting This Chart Of ABAN Based On Just One Single EMA-20.

Your Opinion Shall Be Of Great Importance, In Taking This Forward.



Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde

Hi Savant,

I will apply this to a number of stocks and scan and see what result we get. As it appears, a break above the EMA is a good buy trigger and going below triggers a sell. But we should notice here one important point. In the region of Jan to till date, ABAN is presenting an almost ideal behaviour. A smooth fall without whipsaws till march and then almost symmetric smooth uptrend till mid April and then after a minor correction a huge double breakout. Under such near ideal conditions the single MA line can work wonderfully well but if there are several pull backs and up moves lasing for shorter periods then we will land up with many whipsaws. Therefore, some other condition has to be attached to the price crossing the moving average line so that most of the whipsaws are filtered and more successful trades can be effected.

After scanning different stocks over different periods I will post my conclusions.

Thanks for opening up a new idea.

Regards

-Anant

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Anant,

That Is Exactly What Had Crossed My Mind Looking At The Charts, There Has To Be Some Violent Upside For MAs, EMAs To Change Course & BB To Start Widening From The Last Vertex.

Like You Said, Only Time Will Tell The Real Story...

Thanks A Ton For Your Clarity & View


With Sincerest Regards

SavantGarde

Dear Savant,

The earlier correction was about 32% which is a little less than first Fibonacci level where as the recent correction is about 65% which is a bit more than 2nd Fibo level. The earlier V on upper and lower BB were with a more acute vertex angle but the recent ones are a bit wider. As the last bar is higher than the previous, it has pulled the BBs a little wider and if the price continues to rise they will be further widened and the upward movemrnt will continue. But another important sign is the angle of th 5/6 moving averages (both SMA & EMA). They are very steeply coming down and their reverse cross-over is likely to be delayed unless thereis another big expansion in coming days.

The Moving averages and the BBs are showing a little bit different behaviour. The MA lines are suggesting a further fall faster but the BBs are indicating a slower move. Therefore a big break out or break down only will bring both of these in same direction.

Only time will tell the real story. Till then keep the fingers crossed.

Regards

-Anant

 

[asnavale]

Hi Anant,

Ever Since You Brought Up The EMA, My Mind Has Been Buzzing On This & In My Quest For Things Simple, I Am Posting This Chart Of ABAN Based On Just One Single EMA-20.

Your Opinion Shall Be Of Great Importance, In Taking This Forward.


Happy & Safer Investing

SavantGarde

Hi Savant,

I scanned about 100 different stocks, including the list of triggers of 28-5-09. I found, the EMA20 alone would not be beneficial. In some specific cases like ABAN, WELGUJ we may see a potential trading system but these have some special chart formations which I mentioned in earlier post. You may have a look at ABAN and WELGUJ charts attached here:

ABAN:

WELGUJ:

Whereas, In other cases there are a number of Whipsaws as seen in the following charts of ADLABSFILM, GAIL etc.

ADLABSFILM:

GAIL:

These are some examples. Therefore, in the present form Just EMA would not be useful. Some other critria should be defined to weed out most of the whipsaws.

Regards

-Anant