1 Lakh to 6 Lakh - Tamil Trader Crude Oil Trading Diary

[Tamil trader]

Thanks to rkkarnani, aman and dell.

Now, next point is to filter the wrong signals. It may any system whatever may be used by you.

For every day, there is more ups and downs in crude oil around 70 to 120 points movement per day.

Monthly, there is more than 400 to 600 points ups and downs on monthly basis.

We are doing positional trading. so, we should capture the major trend rather than daily trend.

Our aim is not to earn some points within intraday ups and downs. Our aim is to catch the 80 % of the trend of 400 to 600 points per month. So we should use various filters to avoid so many wrong signals in the normal trend following system.

For example, if the system gives 8 to 10 trades by using 30 minutes chart on monthly basis,

Now 8 to 10 trades per month should be reduced to 2 to 4 trades per month.

This is the next step... So, we can see at next level where howmany indicators are used to filter the wrong signals in the normal trend following system and what comparison should be used with EOD chart

 

[Tamil trader]

Dear TT,
First I would like to thank you for rolling the ball, now something will come up for discussion & we can learn something from you. As far as you question is concerned I would strictly follow the system which says "Get Out" as you see trouble. For me capital preservation is more important than profit. May be not what you would exit, maybe you can explain your "Exit" & the logic behind it.

THANK'S ONCE AGAIN TAMIL TRADER

Yes. There is some psychological factor which is very common to all whenever the market is near our exit level.

First Exit 6385 ... Which cannot be 100 % bearish zone in all times as it is the first exit. anytime, market may reverse after hitting your stop loss.

Second Exit 6365 ... which may be 60 % bearish zone in all times but market will get decent support at that point.

Third Exit 6345 .. which may be 80 % bearish zone in all times because most of the traders may have started to sell the contract and market makers also may have started to move the market on the selling side.

Fourth Exit 6315 ... which will be 99 % bearish zone in all times as per my backtest level. if the 30 minutes bar closes below this level, major trend of the market will totally change. any system cannot give 100 % accuracy. so there may be one or two wrong trades only per quarter.

as we are doing positional trading, fourth exit will confirm the 99 % of the trend. so i take this level only. many times, market will trade near my fourth level but the 30 minutes candle will not close this level and again market will go up. so i will hold the same long position and will not exit if it did not close below that level. So i avoid wrong signals easily by using this exit method.

this is just a part of the trading only. but there is more lessons to explain further. i will show you step by step.

 

[dell]

Thanks to rkkarnani, aman and dell.

Now, next point is to filter the wrong signals. It may any system whatever may be used by you.

For every day, there is more ups and downs in crude oil around 70 to 120 points movement per day.

Monthly, there is more than 400 to 600 points ups and downs on monthly basis.

We are doing positional trading. so, we should capture the major trend rather than daily trend.

Our aim is not to earn some points within intraday ups and downs. Our aim is to catch the 80 % of the trend of 400 to 600 points per month. So we should use various filters to avoid so many wrong signals in the normal trend following system.

For example, if the system gives 8 to 10 trades by using 30 minutes chart on monthly basis,

Now 8 to 10 trades per month should be reduced to 2 to 4 trades per month.

This is the next step... So, we can see at next level where howmany indicators are used to filter the wrong signals in the normal trend following system and what comparison should be used with EOD chart

but prior to it , can u plz answer , what sl should u use and in what context ?

regarding filtering there are many things , like using higher tf reference , adx , rsi , stoch , u can collect numerous of combinations according to ur comfort ..........

 

[dell]

sorry posting of ur reply and my reply is at same time , just read ur reply ........nice one ..

 

[zabeen2004]

It is a trend following system only.. But It is not rajendran's supertrend which gives more whipsaws in sideways and range bound markets. But it is looking like a supertrend.

Supertrend winning ratio is 42 % only which was mentioned in market calls website. But It is giving more than 99 % percent winning in all types of market as far as i know.

I will share the next level of my strategy step by step. because it is more than 21 pages which cannot be explained in a single day. because there is more psychological thoughts have been used to avoid the wrong signals.

Dear Tamil Trader,

I am not opposite to your strategy as I like your thread verymuch than any other threads in this forum but saying that your system is above 99% accuracy and that too in all market conditions... is very hard to digest!!!!..... Anyways All the best....

 

[Tamil trader]

How to find the trend reversal point is the important thing in the positional trading. So one should write the daily high and low of MCX Crude and Nymex Crude separately in the diary.

Without this calculation, I cannot arrive the trend reversal point in my system. So there is no AFL to post here to show my system.

It is not a simple copy and paste work. Some manual calculations are required to arrive the trend reversal point. So i am maintaining my own diary of high and low of nymex crude and mcx crude every day.

I will tell you later on this thread about calculations

 

[Tamil trader]

Dear Tamil Trader,

I am not opposite to your strategy as I like your thread verymuch than any other threads in this forum but saying that your system is above 99% accuracy and that too in all market conditions... is very hard to digest!!!!..... Anyways All the best....

All types of market has been designed to make the profits only by winners.

Normal traders can make money in the trending market. This is easy to everyone. How we react on the rangebound and sideways market is the key to success in all times.

99 % of the traders may make losses. 1 % of the traders may make profits. How to become a part of the 1 % of the traders is the question now.

In the commodity market,

If there is a chance to lose your full capital within one month, there is the chance to double your capital within the month.

So, i will not blame the market as it was designed to make the profits.

"Commodity Market is nothing but Disciplined traders take money from undisciplined traders - By Tamil Trader"

So everyone can make profits in the market if they follow their system with discipline

 

[Tamil trader]

Break below 101.50 $ and 6315 may pull the crude downside... otherwise trend is bullish now

 

[zabeen2004]

All types of market has been designed to make the profits only by winners.

Normal traders can make money in the trending market. This is easy to everyone. How we react on the rangebound and sideways market is the key to success in all times.

99 % of the traders may make losses. 1 % of the traders may make profits. How to become a part of the 1 % of the traders is the question now.

In the commodity market,

If there is a chance to lose your full capital within one month, there is the chance to double your capital within the month.

So, i will not blame the market as it was designed to make the profits.

"Commodity Market is nothing but Disciplined traders take money from undisciplined traders - By Tamil Trader"

So everyone can make profits in the market if they follow their system with discipline

I understand the facts of the Market but give me the straight forward answer DOES YOUR TRADING STYLE HAS accuracy above 99% in all market conditions??? I dont think that is possible unless you are MM's with trillion $. I have never seen a strategy that works above 99% in my trading carrier except the repainting ones which has 100% with only BT data.

At present you have taken three trades in this Month out of which two trades completed with one failure that is only 50% and even if you add the running one as it is winner then 66% .... can you achieve remaining 97 trades without any failure???. I am sorry Tamil Trader i will never and ever accept anything that says they can predict the market with above 99% accuracy as I have tried many paid and free products claiming 90% and above but in RT it failed to perform above 60%. So in short you can mention that your strategy is the one of the best performing one but accuracy above 99% is never and ever accepted by any experienced trader in the planet including me.

 

[Tamil trader]

I understand the facts of the Market but give me the straight forward answer DOES YOUR TRADING STYLE HAS accuracy above 99% in all market conditions??? I dont think that is possible unless you are MM's with trillion $. I have never seen a strategy that works above 99% in my trading carrier except the repainting ones which has 100% with only BT data.

At present you have taken three trades in this Month out of which two trades completed with one failure that is only 50% and even if you add the running one as it is winner then 66% .... can you achieve remaining 97 trades without any failure???. I am sorry Tamil Trader i will never and ever accept anything that says they can predict the market with above 99% accuracy as I have tried many paid and free products claiming 90% and above but in RT it failed to perform above 60%. So in short you can mention that your strategy is the one of the best performing one but accuracy above 99% is never and ever accepted by any experienced trader in the planet including me.

Oh sorry for misunderstanding.

My system has been developed to achieve 200 points every month in crude oil and make one lakh into 6 lakh within one year by compounding system.

As i achieve 200 points every month, i am saying it is above 99 % accuracy. I dont see how many winning trades and losing trades.

My system satisfies my goal. so it is 99 % accuracy for me. thats all.

Anyways, Number of profit is higher than number of losses as risk and reward is very good in my system.

Sorry sorry sorry for misunderstanding.