how much return you expect from commodity market

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hills_5000

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So what you are saying is that at 9.50 pm the bears started selling with such volumes that at 10.00pm when the 2 hrly and 4 hrly bulls came in they could do nothing ? Am I right?

To understand further , you are recommending that to anticipate this setup we should already have a short sell limit order in place just below swing low of the day and have a stop in mind about 350 points above that. Am I right ?

And incase the bulls do take over with heavy buying then let stop get triggered. But not to chase the price upwards since we could easily get trapped if the bulls give up??

regards



How it happened yday.I did post 2 hour chart.This one is 5 Min chart.

Green line represents breakout failure i.e;Breaking high of day then not sustaining.

arrow no 1 represents the momentum bar from beers.red line represents the resistance at the opening of momentum bar and then price falls.

Pink line represents the breaking of swing low confirming beers are coming represented by 2nd arrow.The beauty of this bar is that it happenned around 9.50 PM. we know at 10PM we have both 4 hourly and 2 hourly bars are forming.If that bar closed above 53000 levels. The 4 hour and 2 hour bulls would have come with heavy buy orders and took markets to high.Thats where beers made strategy/tactics and around 9.50 they put a bi order and below chart shows where the 4 hour and 2 hour bar closed.Bulls could not do anything thereafter.

We should be placing advance order just below our lower support and we should not chase mkt once it falls heavy .No here our order is caught at 52930-52850.Stop should be above the top of that big red bar or momentum bar because that is point of no return.. that is at 53250.S/L is 300-400 points and we got very big pips .very good.

Below is 4 hour and 2 hour chart.Relate it with 5 Min chart and note what happen at 10 o clock close and how beers have made systematic plan to catch bulls.


 

ayush2020

Well-Known Member


How it happened yday.I did post 2 hour chart.This one is 5 Min chart.

Green line represents breakout failure i.e;Breaking high of day then not sustaining.

arrow no 1 represents the momentum bar from beers.red line represents the resistance at the opening of momentum bar and then price falls.

Pink line represents the breaking of swing low confirming beers are coming represented by 2nd arrow.The beauty of this bar is that it happenned around 9.50 PM. we know at 10PM we have both 4 hourly and 2 hourly bars are forming.If that bar closed above 53000 levels. The 4 hour and 2 hour bulls would have come with heavy buy orders and took markets to high.Thats where beers made strategy/tactics and around 9.50 they put a bi order and below chart shows where the 4 hour and 2 hour bar closed.Bulls could not do anything thereafter.

We should be placing advance order just below our lower support and we should not chase mkt once it falls heavy .No here our order is caught at 52930-52850.Stop should be above the top of that big red bar or momentum bar because that is point of no return.. that is at 53250.S/L is 300-400 points and we got very big pips .very good.

Below is 4 hour and 2 hour chart.Relate it with 5 Min chart and note what happen at 10 o clock close and how beers have made systematic plan to catch bulls.


nice charts..with explain..
 

Niranjana

Well-Known Member
So what you are saying is that at 9.50 pm the bears started selling with such volumes that at 10.00pm when the 2 hrly and 4 hrly bulls came in they could do nothing ? Am I right?

I meant by 10 PM ,on 2 and 4 hourly bar, beers closed it way below support by putting heavy sell orders just 10 minutes before the closure of these 2 bars so that bulls do not have any opportunity to comeback.

To understand further , you are recommending that to anticipate this setup we should already have a short sell limit order in place just below swing low of the day and have a stop in mind about 350 points above that. Am I right ?

we should have advance order in place .Otherwise instead of getting sell order at right price we get the worst price if you enter on close of that big red bar .Then your risk also becomes huge.In this case say instead of 52850,if you short at 52500 your risk will be 750 points.

Not universal 350 point stoploss.But that stop should be "ON TOP OF A MOMENTUM BAR' which 99/100 times works in your favour.


And incase the bulls do take over with heavy buying then let stop get triggered. But not to chase the price upwards since we could easily get trapped if the bulls give up??

Chasing the price means getting in late .In this case I was talking of placing an advance order at 52950-850 and taking early entry and very small risk and big reward rather than shorting after the closure of that momentum bar and risking too much and then running around.

Hope you got it.

regards

Dear Hills my comments in blue.
 
Sir ..the 4 hrly chart of silver has a big red bar. So should nt we assume that bias is now on the short side. ?

My observation. Silver has been moving in a narrow band the last few days. Yesterday after testing the upper resistance it has come down back into the no man's land and now seems headed towards the lower support ( even though it is slightly above the pivot level right now) . So unless bulls do some serious buying at these levels , price will just drift lower towards lower support.

Could you guide me as to what factors to use while calculating your resistances and supports. ?

thanks
your observation are perfect,but we do not consider satur trading session ,so we will take some decision on mon,but eod ur perdiction is 100% perfect it is on long side
 

hills_5000

Well-Known Member
Sir , I had written that because of the big red bar in 4 hrly on friday , should we not consider that we now have short bias ? Meaning EOD friday we are short . And unless bulls do some big buying on monday at pivot levels price will go down to lower support.

kindly clarify if I have written correct since you have mentioned EOD as long...
your observation are perfect,but we do not consider satur trading session ,so we will take some decision on mon,but eod ur perdiction is 100% perfect it is on long side
 

On Monthly,It is a clear DBHLC.Now bulls in the first week tried to make some recovery BUT NOT SUBSTANTIAL.


On weekly its a green inside bar.Since its a conflicting signal with daily I am not carrying any overnight position.



Again on a daily we have a DBHLC. On top of bar 2, bulls will do some good as bar no 1 & 2 are of same high.Rule:2 or or more bars with same high or low,if broken will lead to big move.

Again if the bar 2 is broken downside it will lead to "BREAKOUT FAILURE" and beers will on rampage.We should be ready for next week to make some good pips.
100 % perfect reading of the charts !!!
 
So what you are saying is that at 9.50 pm the bears started selling with such volumes that at 10.00pm when the 2 hrly and 4 hrly bulls came in they could do nothing ? Am I right?

To understand further , you are recommending that to anticipate this setup we should already have a short sell limit order in place just below swing low of the day and have a stop in mind about 350 points above that. Am I right ?

And incase the bulls do take over with heavy buying then let stop get triggered. But not to chase the price upwards since we could easily get trapped if the bulls give up??

regards

dear hills 5000
what she has explained is 100 % perfect !!!and what u understand is also 100%!!!
 
Sir , I had written that because of the big red bar in 4 hrly on friday , should we not consider that we now have short bias ? Meaning EOD friday we are short . And unless bulls do some big buying on monday at pivot levels price will go down to lower support.

kindly clarify if I have written correct since you have mentioned EOD as long...
sharekhan server is down,i will give its answer tommorow
 
Dear Hills my comments in blue.
i again congertulate u.for the so much perfect understanding of the(((MANAGEMENT OF A TRADE)))it is management of a trade which ,earn rewards in the trading
dear hill as u are also taking full interest in understanding the posts sent and concepts given at her end,i am sure ur travelling period to perfect understanding the things,will come down to 1/3rd -she is the perfect mentor to learn MANAGEMENT OF A TRADE
 
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