Weekly update:
The week gone by was a good one for the benchmark indices which recouped most of the losses seen earlier in the week. I personally feel we might be getting into the climax( last leg) of the rally seen from 4770 odd levels. In the days/weeks ahead, we might be getting into the euphoria stage of the rally sucking in most of the retail investors. Irrespective of the dip we might see next week, our market should be able to bounce back smartly to test recent highs(5815) and move higher to test 5950-6000 before collapsing. There are two possibilities here: 1) To form a double top at 5815 2) To take out 5815 and move to 5950. Either way, we are coming to the end of this bear market rally which I had pointed out in the first page of this thread. Retailers should be extremely cautious in not getting trapped in the sharp fall which will be witnessed once this rally fizzles out.
Global markets will more or less pan out in the same way as our markets. However, the intensity of the correction should be quite powerful with respect to Hangseng, Nifty/Sensex and Mexican index(Bolsa). Shanghai composite(laggard) will outperform the global indices in 2013.
Going into the end of the year, we should start with the correction( maybe towards the end of Dec or even earlier) and continue it in 2013 which according to me will be a year of negative returns. Life time highs will need to wait!
USD/INR- New highs are in the waiting for the pair in 2013 adding to the woes of the economy which is already in Shambles!
The week gone by was a good one for the benchmark indices which recouped most of the losses seen earlier in the week. I personally feel we might be getting into the climax( last leg) of the rally seen from 4770 odd levels. In the days/weeks ahead, we might be getting into the euphoria stage of the rally sucking in most of the retail investors. Irrespective of the dip we might see next week, our market should be able to bounce back smartly to test recent highs(5815) and move higher to test 5950-6000 before collapsing. There are two possibilities here: 1) To form a double top at 5815 2) To take out 5815 and move to 5950. Either way, we are coming to the end of this bear market rally which I had pointed out in the first page of this thread. Retailers should be extremely cautious in not getting trapped in the sharp fall which will be witnessed once this rally fizzles out.
Global markets will more or less pan out in the same way as our markets. However, the intensity of the correction should be quite powerful with respect to Hangseng, Nifty/Sensex and Mexican index(Bolsa). Shanghai composite(laggard) will outperform the global indices in 2013.
Going into the end of the year, we should start with the correction( maybe towards the end of Dec or even earlier) and continue it in 2013 which according to me will be a year of negative returns. Life time highs will need to wait!
USD/INR- New highs are in the waiting for the pair in 2013 adding to the woes of the economy which is already in Shambles!
Last edited:
#505
6th October 2012, 10:51 AM
Re: Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis
Let me clarify this for the last time. The time frame I was using just until recently was a large one which until today gives me a bearish picture about the market. Even with such a time frame I was able to pick potential tops correctly. Now I have shifted to a smaller time frame so that I could analyse the market with respect to current scenario which is what everyone needs. With respect to logic, every post of mine was based on some logic at that point of time. I was extremely bearish as I had posted in one my posts and that policy paralysis was the main reason for the same. Just a few measures were announced by the government and you saw what happened there after. This might change for the worse at any given point and the need of the hour is to be alert in picking the same.
At the end of the day, none of us can be 100 percent perfect either with our analysis or with our system. Each one of us here have the freedom to express his/her own view and there is no compulsion in being correct each time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SEVEN STAR
Your views are bearish right from 5200 market moved 600 points from there that is 10% have any Technical sense then.. add to that please check your earlier comments on Dax and S&P 500.. all jumped 10% from your assessment of moving down..there is something wrong with your analyses.. Please check your earlier posting
Above are previous ref.
Either this or that is not TA .. this kind of thing you can find every where not from an expert
you are Unable to say what your TA gives you the probability and to interpret it to your followers and if you do so there ends your analysis. Any damn fool can say either this or that .. your earlier views not only on our market but other market's too US..UK so on ..you kept on saying Gloom and doom..
Your TA Bear no meaning from 5200 to 5800 and now you say 5815.. 5950..may fizzles out.
When a market moved 10 to 15 % from your bearish view i doubt you have any base to study the market technically...
Take it from me 5770 is the SL target 5550.. 5470 before Diwali..
I may go wrong but i am clear in My TA.
I only request you to go back to your own posting to justify your TA..
Please please understand i have no personal points to prove here just ref.to your earlier posts
6th October 2012, 10:51 AM
Re: Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis
Let me clarify this for the last time. The time frame I was using just until recently was a large one which until today gives me a bearish picture about the market. Even with such a time frame I was able to pick potential tops correctly. Now I have shifted to a smaller time frame so that I could analyse the market with respect to current scenario which is what everyone needs. With respect to logic, every post of mine was based on some logic at that point of time. I was extremely bearish as I had posted in one my posts and that policy paralysis was the main reason for the same. Just a few measures were announced by the government and you saw what happened there after. This might change for the worse at any given point and the need of the hour is to be alert in picking the same.
At the end of the day, none of us can be 100 percent perfect either with our analysis or with our system. Each one of us here have the freedom to express his/her own view and there is no compulsion in being correct each time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SEVEN STAR
Your views are bearish right from 5200 market moved 600 points from there that is 10% have any Technical sense then.. add to that please check your earlier comments on Dax and S&P 500.. all jumped 10% from your assessment of moving down..there is something wrong with your analyses.. Please check your earlier posting
Above are previous ref.
Either this or that is not TA .. this kind of thing you can find every where not from an expert
you are Unable to say what your TA gives you the probability and to interpret it to your followers and if you do so there ends your analysis. Any damn fool can say either this or that .. your earlier views not only on our market but other market's too US..UK so on ..you kept on saying Gloom and doom..
Your TA Bear no meaning from 5200 to 5800 and now you say 5815.. 5950..may fizzles out.
When a market moved 10 to 15 % from your bearish view i doubt you have any base to study the market technically...
Take it from me 5770 is the SL target 5550.. 5470 before Diwali..
I may go wrong but i am clear in My TA.
I only request you to go back to your own posting to justify your TA..
Please please understand i have no personal points to prove here just ref.to your earlier posts
I had no compulsion in replying to this message but I take it as my duty to do so. Let alone me, there have been top technical analysts all around the world who have been surprised by the rally seen in 2012(2nd half). This is one rare occasion wherein markets around the globe have completely completely ignored the technicals and have just rallied for reasons know best to the junk money. If Nifty had truly obeyed the technicals, the rally should have snapped at 2 potential points - 5350 and 5450. Similarly, SP 500 should have snapped at 1380 and 1405. At the end of the day, markets will respect the technicals once the dust settles down. Market structure is dynamic in nature and we need to adjust to this. I have never been a day trader all my life and I would never wish to be one, hence day to day movement of the market would never affect my strategy. Even if nifty comes to 5550, I would be glad to buy into it and ride 300-400 points( last leg ) on the upside than to risk my capital for 100 odd points on the downside currently. I have clearly summarized my broad outlook on the market in the first page of this thread and it would be worthwhile for you to read it before coming to hasty conclusions.
BTW: What happened to your bullish Diwali calls of all time highs and so on? You seemed to have turned into a bearish tone overnight. I guess diwali is approaching faster than you expected
Just kidding.
BTW: What happened to your bullish Diwali calls of all time highs and so on? You seemed to have turned into a bearish tone overnight. I guess diwali is approaching faster than you expected
Just kidding.
Last edited:
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