Restoring Traders/Investors Faith into Investing

[Einstein]

We had some serious discussion on P/E and PEG on the following thread.

http://www.traderji.com/fundamental-analysis/16-move-over-p-e-make-way-peg.html

By the way, prof. robert shiller came out with new CAPE ratio, also known as cyclical adjusted PE ratio. He tried to take historical PE of stock market in order to find if the market is expensive or not.

I sent him my views on CAPE and tried to clarify in most respectful manner (as he is nobel laureate) that his study is wrong. He confirmed in reply that CAPE ratio cannot be used on individual companies and no one should use it this way.

If he says P/E is not worthy then who are we to make our own estimation on PE.??

 

[Steve_1982]

Thank you for referring me to that thread. I had thought that trailing PEG was not speculative.

How can asset earning power be used to value a stock? Most of the time AEP seems to always be below the stock price.

 

[Einstein]

If you or anyone have doubts on valuation message me in private.

 

[Einstein]

Portfolio 2013: Duration 20 months

some are expensive now..

Portfolio 2014: Duration 8 months

-----With proper capital allocation----------
portfolio 2013 : 163% (excluding caplin lab)
portfolio 2014 : 36% ( should followup soon )

 

[rkkarnani]

Yes, People's faith in Investment needs to be restored. Not many Invest ! I also started quiet late but happy that I did !!
Have added 10 shares of Page Ind to my Portfolio at 7111.00 on Thursday. Already hold Cera at 490, Gruh at 202, Repco from 175, Britannia : From Public issue, Caplin Point ~80, Had exited Alembic Pharma much earlier bought at 160, exited at 310 and CMP 375, Havells exited just before split ! Other shares held are : Essar Oil from 35.00 (Sold part qty at 200+, present holding is Free of cost), Cummins~400, Hindalco ~102, Polyplex 110, Jindal stel ~300 CMP ~225 !!, HUL 635, ITC 298 and some 'delisted' shares !
Its simply an awesome return when Shares are chosen properly and invested for Long Term, LT=7+ years and in some cases the Investment is eternal !
Thanks for this thread.

 

[Einstein]

Yes, People's faith in Investment needs to be restored. Not many Invest ! I also started quiet late but happy that I did !!
Have added 10 shares of Page Ind to my Portfolio at 7111.00 on Thursday. Already hold Cera at 490, Gruh at 202, Repco from 175, Britannia : From Public issue, Caplin Point ~80, Had exited Alembic Pharma much earlier bought at 160, exited at 310 and CMP 375, Havells exited just before split ! Other shares held are : Essar Oil from 35.00 (Sold part qty at 200+, present holding is Free of cost), Cummins~400, Hindalco ~102, Polyplex 110, Jindal stel ~300 CMP ~225 !!, HUL 635, ITC 298 and some 'delisted' shares !
Its simply an awesome return when Shares are chosen properly and invested for Long Term, LT=7+ years and in some cases the Investment is eternal !
Thanks for this thread.

That is impressive.

By the way, how old are you? and what is your avg. compounding rate?

 

[rkkarnani]

That is impressive.

By the way, how old are you? and what is your avg. compounding rate?

I am 63+ ! Never looked at or calculated avg. compounding.
Most stocks are bought on suggestion by others. My input was just to time the entry. At times I did not enter immediately on getting the recomendation but entered at lower rates following some TA charts. I did enter a few even higher as read the charts wrong. In liquid shares like HUL, ITC Hindalco I also indulged in swing trading. Happy to say that I could enter at lower rates after selling the holding in 90% cases though did have a few hiccups. In one such swing trade I exited LT and could not get it back at my desired price and it raced up!
I find you have a solid knowledge about the Fundamentals and seem to be doing excellently well !
Last year I also subscribed to a Paid service for Investment and their avg Compounded return is 25%+ !! But looking around when I find people like you sharing so much about Investment have decided not to renew my Subscription!

 

[shreeux]

Portfolio 2013: Duration 20 months

Portfolio 2014: Duration 8 months

-----With proper capital allocation----------
portfolio 2013 : 163% (excluding caplin lab)
portfolio 2014 : 36% ( should followup soon )

Why Portfolio 2014 Qty was 1...?

 

[Einstein]

no particular reason...

 

[shreeux]

no particular reason...

Ok, How to plan exit on stocks...How long you will you hold any strategy ?

I always Cut the winners quickly, Hold the losers till get profit...!!!

Sometimes if not Cut the winners...again it will losers..?