Restoring Traders/Investors Faith into Investing

[Einstein]

well I guess I mentioned it in past (maybe, not sure).

Stocks I selected were good businesses with good management( except cairn india) which can survive for at least 5 (or 10) years, regardless of the market condition. If the company keep doing what they were doing in the past, one can hold them forever Just like coca cola, exxon mobile etc, until and unless an idiot tries to screw it up. Secondly, I don't check the price to exit no value investor should, I look at their quarterly report to make sure its on track, I have a stop loss of 3 bad quarter in general cases. I can give you a whole lecture on my check list but to cut it short.

I will never buy a business, no matter how wonderful it is, until and unless it is available at some discount to its intrinsic value. You'll be amazed to know how much you can compound by buying a business just 20% cheaper in comparison with fair price businesses.

again, cutting the winners is not a bad idea in general cases, this is what charlie munger did for around 10 years, buffett before him, but what if you bought Apple during 1980 and sell in 1985, buying Berkshire Hathway in 60s. wipro in 90s and sell in few years later?? then cutting your winner might not sound a good idea. I keep looking for next berkshire when nobody knows about it, I have few in my list and I'll keep on looking..

 

[rkkarnani]

Ok, How to plan exit on stocks...How long you will you hold any strategy ?

I always Cut the winners quickly, Hold the losers till get profit...!!!

Sometimes if not Cut the winners...again it will losers..?

If one can identify the winners and Loosers properly then the reverse of what you do would be true and what is also a well quoted Stock Market adage :
“Cut your losses and let your profits run”
I am holding Cera from 490 and its >1700 today ! Was tempted so many times to exit but got sane advise from people like Einsten who do Fundamental Analysis to hold on to it ! You will find many such examples in the Portfolio of Einsten! I know people who are holding Asian Paints from 1998, with their average cost below 10/-, you read it correctly its below Rupees TEN and its more than Rs.600/- today! (Taking into account the Split and Bonus during this period)Dividend received not taken into account which amounts to over Rs.260+ per share in last 16 years!
Some people do their own SIP and invest in Stocks as if doing a Long Term FD ! This person , he never took a normal LIC policy, he took the same cover he desired in a Term Insurance, saving handsomely on Premiium which he deployed in Stocks. His risk coverage remains intact and his returns are simply stupendous when compared to what return he might have got by taking a Whole Life Policy!
These investors prove the Warren Buffet correct !
To me there seems no alternate to a well researched Investment in fundamentally strong stocks !

 

[shreeux]

well I guess I mentioned it in past (maybe, not sure).

Stocks I selected were good businesses with good management( except cairn india) which can survive for at least 5 (or 10) years, regardless of the market condition. If the company keep doing what they were doing in the past, one can hold them forever Just like coca cola, exxon mobile etc, until and unless an idiot tries to screw it up. Secondly, I don't check the price to exit no value investor should, I look at their quarterly report to make sure its on track, I have a stop loss of 3 bad quarter in general cases. I can give you a whole lecture on my check list but to cut it short.

I will never buy a business, no matter how wonderful it is, until and unless it is available at some discount to its intrinsic value. You'll be amazed to know how much you can compound by buying a business just 20% cheaper in comparison with fair price businesses.

again, cutting the winners is not a bad idea in general cases, this is what charlie munger did for around 10 years, buffett before him, but what if you bought Apple during 1980 and sell in 1985, buying Berkshire Hathway in 60s. wipro in 90s and sell in few years later?? then cutting your winner might not sound a good idea. I keep looking for next berkshire when nobody knows about it, I have few in my list and I'll keep on looking..

Already you know about my portfolio....Whenever chance i was exit with moderate profit..!!!

I was regenerate new portfolio...starting accumulated Asian Paints and CApital first write now...Also in my mind Havells India,Yes Bank,ITC L&T..like that,

a)But i have doubt how to create well balanced portfolio with all sectors...with large and Midcaps..?

b)In your portfolio 2014, same sectors 2 or 3 stocks there..how to select defensive stocks..on which sectors.?

 

[shreeux]

If one can identify the winners and Loosers properly then the reverse of what you do would be true and what is also a well quoted Stock Market adage :
“Cut your losses and let your profits run”
I am holding Cera from 490 and its >1700 today ! Was tempted so many times to exit but got sane advise from people like Einsten who do Fundamental Analysis to hold on to it ! You will find many such examples in the Portfolio of Einsten! I know people who are holding Asian Paints from 1998, with their average cost below 10/-, you read it correctly its below Rupees TEN and its more than Rs.600/- today! (Taking into account the Split and Bonus during this period)Dividend received not taken into account which amounts to over Rs.260+ per share in last 16 years!
Some people do their own SIP and invest in Stocks as if doing a Long Term FD ! This person , he never took a normal LIC policy, he took the same cover he desired in a Term Insurance, saving handsomely on Premiium which he deployed in Stocks. His risk coverage remains intact and his returns are simply stupendous when compared to what return he might have got by taking a Whole Life Policy!
These investors prove the Warren Buffet correct !
To me there seems no alternate to a well researched Investment in fundamentally strong stocks !

I agreed your points...But recently I chased BEML from 345 to 850..few times...

In case if i hold long price was surged 850 to 500.,

In this scenario what will i do? also suggest your views..?

 

[rkkarnani]

I agreed your points...But recently I chased BEML from 345 to 850..few times...

In case if i hold long price was surged 850 to 500.,

In this scenario what will i do? also suggest your views..?

Just my view and I am no expert in FA :
BEML did not qualify for a long term Investment as per the norms I have seen Fundamental Analysts following.
I believe this stock does not qualify for
Here a call has to be made about the exit point and it may be based on some TA/Charts! As per the charts I follow the first exit was below 389 on 30th April but gave a reentry the very next day on 2nd May at above 403 whic raced to a high of 877 on 25th June! It gave a SELL on 26th below 819 which got triggered on 27th and did a low of 515 recently ! Now as per my charts its again LONG with a SL below 512 or on closing basis below 528 !

I myself was stuck in BEML for long time. In fact it was a Intraday trade which bombed and I converted it to Short term and then to Long term investment! Loosing patience I exited when price reached my entry levels and thereafter it trippled from there!

 

[shreeux]

Just my view and I am no expert in FA :
BEML did not qualify for a long term Investment as per the norms I have seen Fundamental Analysts following.
I believe this stock does not qualify for
Here a call has to be made about the exit point and it may be based on some TA/Charts! As per the charts I follow the first exit was below 389 on 30th April but gave a reentry the very next day on 2nd May at above 403 whic raced to a high of 877 on 25th June! It gave a SELL on 26th below 819 which got triggered on 27th and did a low of 515 recently ! Now as per my charts its again LONG with a SL below 512 or on closing basis below 528 !

I myself was stuck in BEML for long time. In fact it was a Intraday trade which bombed and I converted it to Short term and then to Long term investment! Loosing patience I exited when price reached my entry levels and thereafter it trippled from there!

Already enter & exit few times....Recently added 25% at 556...on 18th Aug..due to bullish candle formed..after that price will surged...I was expect to add on 450 or 400...Lets see what happen..?

 

[insursi]

I agreed your points...But recently I chased BEML from 345 to 850..few times...

In case if i hold long price was surged 850 to 500.,

In this scenario what will i do? also suggest your views..?

In my view, cyclical sector and scrips related to govt policies will not qualify for value investing category.

 

[Einstein]

Already you know about my portfolio....Whenever chance i was exit with moderate profit..!!!

I was regenerate new portfolio...starting accumulated Asian Paints and CApital first write now...Also in my mind Havells India,Yes Bank,ITC L&T..like that,

a)But i have doubt how to create well balanced portfolio with all sectors...with large and Midcaps..?

b)In your portfolio 2014, same sectors 2 or 3 stocks there..how to select defensive stocks..on which sectors.?

yes, I have that screenshot of your portfolio. at first I scratch my head that how long will it take me to check them all..

regarding your question on defensive stocks. I don't think there is any terminology of defensive stocks. You buy what you understand.

You also have a valid question here, that is to protect capital and get maximum gains if you don't have a degree in finance or something like that.



I recommend you to hire a performing money manager, portfolio managers. They are much better choice then investing on your own, however its not a trend in developing countries like ours,
people just pour money into mutual funds with bank's name with it and their long term is pathetic.

There are few of my favorite like samir arora's Helios capital which is current years best performer with 36% Gain. few small funds are operating in Delhi with AUM upto just 300 crores.
You can choose from them, it will be a good decision.

 

[TracerBullet]

I recommend you to hire a performing money manager, portfolio managers. They are much better choice then investing on your own, however its not a trend in developing countries like ours,
people just pour money into mutual funds with bank's name with it and their long term is pathetic.

There are few of my favorite like samir arora's Helios capital which is current years best performer with 36% Gain. few small funds are operating in Delhi with AUM upto just 300 crores.
You can choose from them, it will be a good decision.

Can you please provide any more details to backup this claim.

1) "MF long term performance is pathetic" - Plenty of them have beaten their respective indices comfortably over long term but i guess they are pathetic compared to fund managers? Ofc, no point comparing large cap MF with possibly midcap portfolios.

2) Details of these fund managers portfolio performance - is it openly available? I would like to see how they did in various phases long term. I can undertsand that they may do better as corpus is lower. What are their expenses? Do they make their portfolio public?

3) "samir arora's Helios capital which is current years best performer with 36% Gain" - How is this better than MFs in a bullish year? This is easily equalled or bettered by conservative diversified funds such as HDFC Equity , Franklin Prima Plus and comfortably beaten by any decent midcap fund say ICICI Discovery and HDFC Midcap

Why should i not invest in Mutual Funds that are bound by rules and have to provide all details publicly making it easier for us to track? I am not familiar with how these fund managers work, so please do tell. thanks

 

[shreeux]

yes, I have that screenshot of your portfolio. at first I scratch my head that how long will it take me to check them all..

regarding your question on defensive stocks. I don't think there is any terminology of defensive stocks. You buy what you understand.

You also have a valid question here, that is to protect capital and get maximum gains if you don't have a degree in finance or something like that.

I recommend you to hire a performing money manager, portfolio managers. They are much better choice then investing on your own, however its not a trend in developing countries like ours,
people just pour money into mutual funds with bank's name with it and their long term is pathetic.

There are few of my favorite like samir arora's Helios capital which is current years best performer with 36% Gain. few small funds are operating in Delhi with AUM upto just 300 crores.
You can choose from them, it will be a good decision.

I know my portfolio its too lengthy...it consume more time...recently few scripts exit and enter newly.,Now i try to reduce my portfolio with moderate profit...and plan to enter good scripts.,

I don't like hire some one....manage my portfolio...I like to learn...How to build strong portfolio...!!!

In my view, If i choose all sectors, each one or two best scripts....its good Portfolio or not ?...Suggest your views..!!!