Some of my forecasts

[forexworld]

FW, I'm agreeing with you, but it seems like things are going to get volatile from this point. The downside objective has been hit, as far as the weekly tenken getting hit. If the kijun at .8195 is hit, IMO, it is going to take take the pattern of something that is more long range consolidation by nature.

Hi Mr paul, The weekly kinjun appears to be a strong S area sooner or later I am confident we should see a move there ! I was talking about the correction getting completed on the daily chart! I don't see any north move from this point but If the pair is moving more north from here I am also confident it is limited as far as what I see in the your WF and the weekly chart!

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Hi Raj, Do you trade this pair ? You are right in the point you made I understand what you are trying to say! We should be prepared for the worst case After all Market can do anything !as the point you are talking about a rally further north but in this case some such as this common sense should be applied with the analysis , It it were to go up settling above the kinjun the chart would look ugly and then I wouldn't even touch it

I have traded it earlier but no open positions now. Kijun sen is 89411 daily right.

When there is a momentum, there is no rule of thumb that it should stop near Kijun.. it can just take over but if the trader conviction is really good then one must go for the trade.

Regards
Raj

 

[hills_5000]

Paul what do you say abt a long on the E/J since there is abounce of the KS on the daily and plenty of headroom on the weekly?

Want your opinion as to why this is right /wrong .

 

[4xpipcounter]

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Hills, a couple of points here, that may sound like a repudiation. I guess in a way it is--lol. I also posted the daily chart to show my point.

The candle has crossed the TL, but it does not mean it broke it. Price can go as high as it wants to, an it still does not mean the TL was broken. The TL contains as long as the close of the candle is on this side of the TL.
It could also be the recipe for a strong reversal tomorrow. The candle is thinking, "Whoa! I'm in a downtrend, and this TL is in my way. I need to get out of here!" And, so, it scampers south, and in a hurry to get away from the TL.

Point 2: It is getting close, again to the weekly cloud. The cloud no longer has the same ability to resist price action, even though it is still R, and it needs to be broken in order to convince us it is going higher. Once the could has been hit and you get the bounce, it is no longer fresh, so it loses much of its elasticity, or ability to resist price action.
That is not to imply the cloud will be broken anytime soon, but it is something to keep in mind.
Having said that, there are strong implications on the 4-hour this market is headed south at least the next couple of days.

it's gone above the trend line.. facing resistance at the cloud. Could cross the cloud . If it retraces and goes below the trend , I think only then a short is called for. Do correct me if am wrong here.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hills, I agree with you. That pair is headed north the rest of the week.

Paul..the E/G pair on the daily has its lower wick touching the weekly support line. Is it a good bet to go long there? with a very small SL ?

 

[4xpipcounter]

FW, I posted the chart in #1917.
I'm quite sure it was the weekly he was talking about with regard to the R.

Hi Hills, I don't know what you are talking about! It never went above the trend line and it is already above the cloud it never did brake it! I am talking about trend line correction which appears to be completed ! The kinjun is acting as a strong R the pair has to go much lower compare to the weekly Look at the WF!

 

[forexworld]

I have traded it earlier but no open positions now. Kijun sen is 89411 daily right.

When there is a momentum, there is no rule of thumb that it should stop near Kijun.. it can just take over but if the trader conviction is really good then one must go for the trade.

Regards
Raj

In regards to the momentum and kinjun I would be surprised that kinjun would not react on the pair when there is a momentum! I would tell you to switch to H4 and add the 200 day SMA and the daily kinjun adds to it! Switch to the weekly it would still give you an idea for a south move and weekly stochastic does agree with it! I am not saying that You should short it but the most favoured case that it is still headed south from here I would look for the weekly tenken first and second weekly kinjun do be the area !

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: 3 for 1 special

Raj, it's always a pleasure.

Even hedging there has to be a methodological approach to it, or it can smoke your account quicker than anything. There is always the temptation to over leverage a trade. OTOH, it is also possible to go 100's of pips in the red and not even be fazed. Hedging is just another type of money management. Money management is not exclusively size of trade and where you put your stops. I've had people e-mail me and ask about money management. It is deep and more of a personal topic. LOL, it is the difference between some traders being down by 300 pips and not being fazed and others being down by 300 and bankrupting their account.

I know the hedge is very nasty.. I had to close even coz of some emergency work.. LOL.. I never doubted the rebound to 1.3964, I just doubted the timing of it coz I was watching the move that time.

U have brought me lot of confidence with your explanation. I really thank you for that.

I really like the way u plan ur entries.. 1.3675 is something that I also would like to look forward also..

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: 3 for 1 special

If it is cable you are referring to, I think it is locked into 1.5777. I think it just joined the USD northward party late. A cross check of the EUR/GBP also gives us an idea of how the EUR/USD and GBP/USD will perform over coming days.

Do u see a downside move after a pullback..
i went long on this pair and closed it also. A quicker one

Regards
Raj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Re: 3 for 1 special

Raj, it's always a pleasure.

Even hedging there has to be a methodological approach to it, or it can smoke your account quicker than anything. There is always the temptation to over leverage a trade. OTOH, it is also possible to go 100's of pips in the red and not even be fazed. Hedging is just another type of money management. Money management is not exclusively size of trade and where you put your stops. I've had people e-mail me and ask about money management. It is deep and more of a personal topic. LOL, it is the difference between some traders being down by 300 pips and not being fazed and others being down by 300 and bankrupting their account.

Paul,

I am still interested to know how do u position size. I have become so conservative that I would like to use not more than 10% Margin and will try to keep it under 5%.

Last time when I got bankrupt I have used min 25% and max no limit Even for the worst trade, the maximum drawdown should not be more than 5% I have come up with set of rules but still finetuning it.

Regards
Raj