Weekly Review--111311
Note: This is the first week of the year my Weekly Forecast totally missed it on most of the pairs. Usually, the case is if I miss it, it is because I am off by an S or R level, and the reversal is going to be that much more explosive. This week was a case of missing the turning point on most of the pairs. In essence, the turning point was predictable, but exactly where it was going to turn was not, and that is why the forecasts are off this week.
EUR/USD: This pair ended the week with a very bullish candle on the day chart. The week will start by giving some of that back with a move to the TK combo on the 4-hour at 1.3671. From there, the pair should be headed north the rest of the week, as the WR2 at 1.3958 should be hit. That will also line up rather nicely with the TL break I alluded to so much.
MT, this pair is headed even higher, as the dip from last week at the WS2 should mark the low for awhile as we watch this pair climb towards 1.4178. That circa area will mark either a very strong continuation that will mark a continuation of the uptrend towards 1.4637. The favored scenario is to get a strong reversal around 1.4178
The week started with the strong spike to 1.3809, and that was all she wrote. It headed to the dip at 1.3421, which fulfilled the DOWN TL break at 1.3433 we talked about so much
USD/JPY: This pair is back where it was before the strong move from Monday, 2 weeks ago. It should continue lower to the WS1 at 76.78 and maybe the WS2 at 76.46. This pair is also subject to some strong volatility.
This pair did continue lower and dipped in between the WS1 and WS2 at 76.56.
GBP/USD: The top of the daily cloud at 1.5944 should now contain the downside before it stages the remainder of the UP to circa 1.6218. It is possible it will be consummated this week.
It was consummated this week, but not in the fashion I thought, as the week began with the spike to 1.6091, and it went south the rest of the week to the dip at 1.5690.
USD/CHF: This pair is in a situation that if I am wrong Im going to look really bad. There is upside potential to .9408 which would take the next 2 weeks to complete. It is doubtful that will happen. On the downside, if .8945 is broken, then that should signal we are back in the DOWN.
The pair continued north to the peak at .9251.
EUR/CHF: This pair remains a mess to b able to get accurate handle on. Ironically, one that jumped in at 1.0100 area are not saying that. Nevertheless, this pair is turning into a forecasters nightmare. Look for support at 1.2341. A break there and it could bring on a volatile consolidative mix. The MT outlook is clear. The pair is in for a strong reversal at 1.2889, and in a couple of weeks that figure will drop to 1.2713.
My forecasters nightmare turned out to be almost spot on. On Monday there was a spike to the dip for the week at 1.2327, and Fridays dip was at exactly 1.2341. Because the S region was not broken, the pair continued in its consolidation, but it is still very tight.
AUD/USD: There is one level to keep in mind for this pair, and that is 1.0650. That is absolute containment that will provide an explosive reversal. This pair will not make it there this week.
For this week, it looks very sure this pair will start off in reverse as it heads to the WS1 at 1.0179. Afterward, it appears to be another bullish week for the pair as it heads north to 1.0478, and even allowing for a spike to the WR2 at 1.0491.
Instead, we made it to 1.0650, and it did not contain, as the dip was .9963.
USD/CAD: This pair is going to start the week in a partial correction of the downtrend, as it heads to my WR1 at 1.0153, which will be a minor cluster event that should be enough to contain price action on the upside. The thing to watch for is the reaction at the WS2 at .9997. If that is taken out convincingly, then it is the express route to .9737, but not all this week.
This pair stared with the spike to 1.0072, then it was north from there to the peak at 1.0300.
NZD/USD: This pair is ready for a correction within the UP it started to end last week. The correction should take it to .7808--.7774. The reversal will take it to .7997, and allowing for a spike to the WR2 at .8023. MT, watch for .8155. Its that area that carries the potential for a strong reversal.
This pair started the week with a strong spike to .7924, and then it was due south from there, as the dip was .7552.
EUR/GBP: This pair is getting in a tight squeeze at the bottom of the weekly cloud. The WS1 at .8517 should contain any move to the south. The WR2 at .8619 is a cluster event and should contain. Just in case it does not, then it could be a very quick move to .8806 that would probably take until next week to complete.
The dip was exactly at the WS1 at .8517, and the peak was .8601, just 16 pips under the WR2.
EUR/JPY: This weeks dip, circa WS1 at 105.06, will probably be the final dip until this pair makes it to the cluster R at 109.31, and then the bottom of the weekly cloud at 114.37.
This pair turned very volatile this week, as it started with a strong spike to 106.69, then headed south to the dip at 103.39.
GBP/JPY: This weeks dip, circa WS1 or WS2 at 123.07 and 122.35 respectively, will probably be the final dip until this pair makes it to the weekly kijun at 125.97, and then the bottom of the weekly cloud at 131.20.
This pair started the week with a strong spike to 124.29, then it went south to the dip at 120.84.