Some of my forecasts

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Re: Weekly Forecast--112011

EUR/USD: The downside objective has been fulfilled, but that still does not tell us it is over. The upside back to circa 1.3931 has not been. There is potential for a continued downside move towards to 1.3260. Anywhere between current level and 1.3260 should signal the move north towards 1.3931, and maybe beyond. Conceptually, and in the longer term, this pair should now be headed to 1.2130. The next strong leg north should be it, and then we head south to break whatever the dip is on this leg.
For this week, we could see the move to the WS2 at 1.3299, and even a spike to 1.3260. It is also possible to see a strong push from current level, and send this pair rocketing to the WR2 at 1.3725, and beyond. This is a tough call for the week, but the favorable route would be to start the week with a move to the WS1 at 1.3405, then see the bulls takes over for the rest of the week.

USD/JPY: The pair should start off the week with a mile move south towards the WS1WS2 area at 76.6776.44. Anything to the north should be limited to the WR2 at 77.36, which is a strong cluster event.

GBP/USD: MT, this pair is still on its way to the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.5545, and then to 1.5236. The WS2 is 1.5556, so the bottom of the cloud could be hit this week. Any move north should be contained at the WR1 at 1.5895.

USD/CHF: This pair is reentering an area that could yield a very strong reaction at the WR2 at .9325, if not the monthly tenken at .9399. Until we get the strong reversal, .9104 contains.

EUR/CHF: The bottom of the weekly cloud, currently at 1.2713 will still yield a strong reversal. It just seems like it is taking a long time to get there, because the pair is taking the local going east.

AUD/USD: If the bottom of the daily cloud at .9938 does not contain price action, then the pair is headed to .9700. LT, it appears this pair is headed to .8332. This week it is likely that the WS1 at .9900. The move north will be contained at the WR1 at 1.0108, and possibly the WR2 at 1.0211.

USD/CAD: This pair has gone from what used to be a strong correction mode to being back in the strong move north. We will need a convincing break of 1.0241 before any sign of a reversal. That level is also a distance from the WS1 at 1.0207. The next strong S south is 1.0190. A strong cluster S is 1.0062.

NZD/USD: This pair is in for some strong one-way moves. The bottom of the weekly cloud at .7340 is MT containment, while containment heading north is around .7960. As for this week, a correction of the current DOWN could be needed. Look for the WR1 at .7664 or the WR2 at .7766 to contain.

EUR/GBP: The WR2 at .8604 is a major decision point for this pair. The bottom of the weekly cloud is still containing, but that does not meet it wont give out, especially with increasing pressure coming from the monthly. If the bottom of the weekly gives out, then we are headed to .8167

EUR/JPY: There could be some further downside to explore for this pair, but look for 102.32 to contain. What is really going on is that this pair is preparing for what is going to be a very strong leg that will go to sub-100, and even into the 80.00s. Once we make it to circa 102.32, look for there to be an interim move north to the weekly kijun at 109.31 or the weekly bottom of the cloud at 114.37. This week the upside is probably limited to the WR2 at 105.75

GBP/JPY: There is now potential for a further drop to 119.35. For this week, watch for a reaction at the WR1 at 124.53. We could see a move in that direction to start the week.

Hi Paul,

Hope you are doing well.

I have been analying your forecasts and trying to corelate cross currencies

I have three currencies

EURUSD, USDCHF & EURCHF
(Moving High (North) - W) (Moving High (North) - W) Double High
(Moving Down -M) (Moving Down - M) Double Down

As per your weekly expecting a reversal at 1.27 but as per your forecast it will be moving east.

Just wondering whether u consider cross currencies when u forecast. Waiting for a day where I can forecast like you. As off now I follow individual pairs

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Weekly Forecast--112011

Raj, forecasting is why I go to work everyday. I love reading charts and having them tell me what is going to happen in the future.

I enjoy cross checking currencies, but they never play a part in my analysis. THE chart is all I look at.
Let me qualify that ever so slightly. Someone on my blog was asking me about the GBP/JPY, which is also how its analysis ended up here in my thread. In the near future, it is due for a strong move north. Earlier, in another conversation, I was talking about cross-checking the indexes. I noticed on the daily the GBP was still OB, and the NZD was most OS. Combine the 2 means the GBP/NZD is headed south.
Through all that, I had to check the NZD/JPY. Sure enough! It looked like the best of the bunch, which is why I am now holding a long on the pair.
In essence, the NZD/JPY was showing on its own chart why it is headed north, but I was alerted to it by conversations with 2 other traders on 2 different topics through cross checking. This is why I believe that, as traders, we need each other. I would have still found a position to enter in on my own, but it was through the network of friends and traders that led me with more immediacy to open the position on the NZD/JPY, which is going to fetch 300 pips.

BTW, for my trading, I track 28 pairs, and copious other markets for analysis, which is largely based on what others want. That is my own individualistic approach. If there are individual pairs you follow, then hold to your guns. You will and most likely are getting plenty of opportunities. LOL, I wish I was you, to some degree. I wish I had the head on my shoulders like you do when I was in my early-20's. OTOH, I wish I could view markets through the eyes of Elliot Wave like JahDave can (Wait until he gets done with his personal business. He will have one of the best threads in this whole forum.). In reality, the grass always looks greener on the other side. I'm happy with who I am. As long as you continue to be successful in your walk in life, then be happy with who you are. Hey, I've been referred to as a maniac, because of following so many markets. I got some other stories to tell along those lines, but not here--lol.

Next! The EUR/CHF:The bottom of the weekly cloud, currently at 1.2713 makes for an ideal reversal point. The pair is getting close but has lost momentum, needless to say. The past few weeks, it has gone east. There is no sign of that discontinuing, as many indications on many TF's are mixed.
Current level could be a build up under the weekly TL that would suggest we are about to get the strong reversal; yet, I still hold the ideal point is 1.2713. If I'm taking a position on this pair, then it will be at 1.2713, nothing less.
Having said that it is still feesible to see a strong move south from current level.
Because of so much uncertainty at the current level is why I still have to favor the move east.

Hi Paul,

Hope you are doing well.

I have been analying your forecasts and trying to corelate cross currencies

I have three currencies

EURUSD, USDCHF & EURCHF
(Moving High (North) - W) (Moving High (North) - W) Double High
(Moving Down -M) (Moving Down - M) Double Down

As per your weekly expecting a reversal at 1.27 but as per your forecast it will be moving east.

Just wondering whether u consider cross currencies when u forecast. Waiting for a day where I can forecast like you. As off now I follow individual pairs

Regards
Raj

 

[4xpipcounter]

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The apex is located at .9187. One of two things will happen: 1. It contains in preparation for a sharp drop; 2. Price blows though it and we head higher.

If the apex is broken, then there is room for a move to .9297, and then it should contain. A strong drop still looms around the corner.

BTW, we are talking about the EUR/CHF. Thew above analysis might imply that as a crosscheck, it is time for the EUR/CHF to plunge. It could get squared off by a strong move north on the part of the EUR/USD. Being under the daily cloud makes it complicated, and a move to circa 1.3300 could still loom.

 

[Piratetrader]

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I posted my outlook on this pair, the NZD/JPY, but I wanted to address a methodology I talked about in Debarghya's thread. It is also very simple to assimilate, and it works. It involves a MA, and the stochastics. Personally, I do not like the usage of MA's that sell e-books and look good on the chart after the fact. I like the practical usage where they show you the market direction in advance. So, here's the deal:
1. Look for when the candle has drifted further than normal away from the MA. "Further than normal" can be checked with the history. Another way to do it is plot your grids on the chart, then count the number of horizontal grid it has drifted.
2. Check the stochastics. Make sure they are ideally OB or OS and ready to cross, or preferably crossed already.
3. Enter the trade, such as what I did as seen on the chart.
4. Watch price action on the reversal. Minimum expectation should be the MA getting hit. If initial price action is strong, then the MA should be taken out.

This is the daily chart, and the white line is the MA. This trade should be good for circa 300 pips.

I have been experimenting a lot with the 9,3,4 stochastic, which is why it is plotted on my chart.

This trade was actually made based on what I saw through the eyes of my methodology. Longer term, it should be headed much lower. Nevertheless, the stochastic--MA connection is worth watching and confirming on your own.

Hello sir, How are you ? Sir Something new MA period sir ?and how do you use the White Ma Sir ?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Saif, the MA-stochastic crossover is just another way of looking at the market. I posted the MA on my chart, because it would be needless to make a different chart just for that demonstration. As I described it, it is one of the easier setups to trade. Keep in mind it is subject to maybe a larger pullback from the entry, the larger the TF you are looking at.

Hello sir, How are you ? Sir Something new MA period sir ?and how do you use the White Ma Sir ?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Gbp/nzd

There will be at least a bounce from 2.1029, and of course, that could be the reversal, so it is worth taking a shot at for at least a ST short.

This might be a little premature, but the pair appears ready for a reversal. Untill I get additional confirmation, it should be ready to hit the daily tenken at 2.0626. If Tuesday is a strong bear candle, then put the kijun at 2.0242 on the radar.

 

[LivetoTrade]

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The apex is located at .9187. One of two things will happen: 1. It contains in preparation for a sharp drop; 2. Price blows though it and we head higher.

If the apex is broken, then there is room for a move to .9297, and then it should contain. A strong drop still looms around the corner.

BTW, we are talking about the EUR/CHF. Thew above analysis might imply that as a crosscheck, it is time for the EUR/CHF to plunge. It could get squared off by a strong move north on the part of the EUR/USD. Being under the daily cloud makes it complicated, and a move to circa 1.3300 could still loom.

Since we have entered the cloud, why is it that we will not make it to the top of the cloud? Is it because of the SD extremities?

 

[4xpipcounter]

LTT, I assume it is the weekly you are referring to. When you look at the previous candle, it barely snuck its nose in the cloud. If we get the move north to .9297, then it should result in a very strong reversal, thrusting the candle out of the cloud, and thus, finishing the week under it.
What is ideal is for the state apex to contain and get moving south.
As far as the candle being in the cloud, I am allowing for a margin of error rather than a spike or an exception to the rule. This view will take a different look if we finish the week inside the cloud.
I may have mentioned this before, but I view the SD channel extreme as an alert, not as an S or R. After all, it can shift and repaint. What does ensue is a strong bounce once it gets hit. So, when it does get hit, then I refer to other parts of the methodology in order to ascertain my entry.

Since we have entered the cloud, why is it that we will not make it to the top of the cloud? Is it because of the SD extremities?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nzd/usd

The reversal begins Wednesday if we finish at least close to current level-- .7467.

 

[LivetoTrade]

LTT, I assume it is the weekly you are referring to. When you look at the previous candle, it barely snuck its nose in the cloud. If we get the move north to .9297, then it should result in a very strong reversal, thrusting the candle out of the cloud, and thus, finishing the week under it.
What is ideal is for the state apex to contain and get moving south.
As far as the candle being in the cloud, I am allowing for a margin of error rather than a spike or an exception to the rule. This view will take a different look if we finish the week inside the cloud.
I may have mentioned this before, but I view the SD channel extreme as an alert, not as an S or R. After all, it can shift and repaint. What does ensue is a strong bounce once it gets hit. So, when it does get hit, then I refer to other parts of the methodology in order to ascertain my entry.

Let me ask you again, why not the monthly kijun at .9398?