Some of my forecasts
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Re: Crude Oil
Go tell Kamlesh he doesn't know what he is talking about. If he is 6'6" and 300 pounds, tell him he is the smartest man that ever walked. LOL.
BTW, who is he? I'm not sure we met.
After the Weekly Forecast, crude oil is at the top of my list. I said the top of the cloud is a decision point just because there is a lot of indifference at that point. We could get a minor move south, then it consolidate inside the cloud, then prepare to break through the top. The tenken and kijun are too far south to believe there is an immanency in the break. Kamlesh posted an hourly chart. By the time it plays out completely, the candle will still be inside the weekly cloud. So I guess I agree with him. There will probably be at least a correction.
Treat this as talk for now. The official forecast will come after the Weekly Forecast is posted.
Go tell Kamlesh he doesn't know what he is talking about. If he is 6'6" and 300 pounds, tell him he is the smartest man that ever walked. LOL.
BTW, who is he? I'm not sure we met.
After the Weekly Forecast, crude oil is at the top of my list. I said the top of the cloud is a decision point just because there is a lot of indifference at that point. We could get a minor move south, then it consolidate inside the cloud, then prepare to break through the top. The tenken and kijun are too far south to believe there is an immanency in the break. Kamlesh posted an hourly chart. By the time it plays out completely, the candle will still be inside the weekly cloud. So I guess I agree with him. There will probably be at least a correction.
Treat this as talk for now. The official forecast will come after the Weekly Forecast is posted.
Actually, no. You did not miss anything. The dip was 1.3211, and now we are at 1.35.
Markets and the indicators are dynamic. You can get a long term view and have a very good idea where they are headed. As the trends and corrections progress, there are times adjustments are needed. Now that we are at 1.3500, there is still enough momentum to carry it higher to the circa bottom of the daily cloud at 1.3811. I'll be out of my trade before we get that high. The long term picture still looks south, so I'm not getting too comfortable as we near that point.
Markets and the indicators are dynamic. You can get a long term view and have a very good idea where they are headed. As the trends and corrections progress, there are times adjustments are needed. Now that we are at 1.3500, there is still enough momentum to carry it higher to the circa bottom of the daily cloud at 1.3811. I'll be out of my trade before we get that high. The long term picture still looks south, so I'm not getting too comfortable as we near that point.
Last edited:
Nifty
Now that the strong move northward hit the cloud a few days quicker than I thought, it is time to adjust slightly.
The thin portion of the cloud was no problem to take out. 5168--5189 is now a strong R zone. I'm so confident it will hold, I don't even have an alternate view. Exceptions to that are spikes.
The reversal is going to be strong.
Now that the strong move northward hit the cloud a few days quicker than I thought, it is time to adjust slightly.
The thin portion of the cloud was no problem to take out. 5168--5189 is now a strong R zone. I'm so confident it will hold, I don't even have an alternate view. Exceptions to that are spikes.
The reversal is going to be strong.
Cad/chf
I did cut-n-paste this from another thread, but it is on my MT radar, which is why I wanted to post it here.
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The posted chart shows the potential of the drop along with my bias for the market. As a conservative trader, I would wait for a strong break of .8965, and then a correction back to that point, and then initiate the position from there. With a more aggressive stance, I would turn to my weeklies (Not done yet for this week.), and wait for my WR1 to get hit. The one thing that is for sure is that whatever the level will be there will be at least a bounce from that point, and would also have the potential for the reversal.
The reason this market is view as OB is that the candle is flying so high above the cloud (equilibrium), and so there has to be a gravitational pull back to it. When that move begins, then the daily, which has the stochs perfectly curled and strong OB, will makes its move to the top of its cloud at .8816. The daily cloud is very thin, as the bottom is .8777. If that is broken, then it heads to the next key support at .8637. A convincing break of that leads to cluster support on the weekly chart at .8079. The .8637 level is on my radar.
I did cut-n-paste this from another thread, but it is on my MT radar, which is why I wanted to post it here.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
The posted chart shows the potential of the drop along with my bias for the market. As a conservative trader, I would wait for a strong break of .8965, and then a correction back to that point, and then initiate the position from there. With a more aggressive stance, I would turn to my weeklies (Not done yet for this week.), and wait for my WR1 to get hit. The one thing that is for sure is that whatever the level will be there will be at least a bounce from that point, and would also have the potential for the reversal.
The reason this market is view as OB is that the candle is flying so high above the cloud (equilibrium), and so there has to be a gravitational pull back to it. When that move begins, then the daily, which has the stochs perfectly curled and strong OB, will makes its move to the top of its cloud at .8816. The daily cloud is very thin, as the bottom is .8777. If that is broken, then it heads to the next key support at .8637. A convincing break of that leads to cluster support on the weekly chart at .8079. The .8637 level is on my radar.
Weekly Forecast--112711
EUR/USD: Watch for the WS1 at 1.3139 to contain this week, and bring on the correction that has been much talked about. The correction will take this pair to the WR2 at 1.3422.
The peak was 1.3545, as the pair was challenging the WR3. There was no chance of retracement as the pair started the week with a strong spike north.
USD/JPY: A correction should begin the week, but any downside momentum should be limited to my WS2 at 77.11. Upside potential is looking strong all the time, as the pair has its eye riveted back on 78.11, and it could be hit this week.
Pretty much spot on as the peak and dip was 78.27 and 77.28.
GBP/USD: Look for the WS1 at 1.5332 to contain this week. This pair looks weaker than its cousin, the EUR/USD. Any correction should be contained at 1.5868 and take up to 2 weeks to finish.
A mild correction started the week to 1.5457, and then the peak was 1.5778.
USD/CHF: This pair is getting ominously close to a very strong reversal, and that is in spite of it cracking the weekly cloud. The monthly tenken is .9394, but the WR1 at .9354 could contain this week. If we get a strong break through circa .9216, then that will mark the beginning of a very strong correction.
We got that strong break, and the dip was .9065. The week ended by correcting the strong break.
EUR/CHF: I might be through with the talk of hitting the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.2713. Dont be surprised if the recent peak at 1.2439 is going to be it for awhile, as the picture is clearing up for this pair. Look for the WR1 at 1.2349, or the WR2 at 1.2395 to contain this week to bring on a strong move south. The WS2 at 1.2213 is well within range this week.
The peak was 1.2391, and the dip came within 10 pips of the WS2 at 1.2223.
AUD/USD: The correction that is around the corner should be limited to 1.0070. As is the case with many pairs this week the continuing trend should be limited by a 1 and has its eyes on a 2. WS1 is .9611 and WR2 is .9899.
The strong thrust the pair got to start the week jolted it to 1.0328.
USD/CAD: The WR1 is 1.0543, but this pair may not get that high this week. The WS2 at 1.0329 represents a cluster event, and might contain this week.
Similar to the Aussie except going south the dip went well beyond the 2 to 1.0078.
NZD/USD: Downward momentum has waned, and this pair is OS, so it is ready to move north. The WS1 is .7336, but there is room for a slight spike through it, nevertheless, that level should contain. The WR2 at .7552 is well within view.
This pair also had the strong spike to start the week as the peak was .7834.
EUR/GBP: There is still heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. Watch for a reaction at the WS2 at .8501.
We had a strong reversal at .8519, just 18 pips from the WS2.
EUR/JPY: The WR2 is 103.89, which is also a cluster event. The problem with any upward movement is there is a strong push to the south. We could see the WS1 at 102.36 and even the WS2 at 101.85 get hit this week. Reactions at both those areas are worth taking note of. As a crosscheck (Seldom do I do this.), and even though the charts for the EUR/JPY are suggesting a drop to the WS2, it is doubtful well get that low.
The crosscheck proved correct as the dip was only 103.06, and then the pair bolted to 105.67.
GBP/JPY: We need a strong move on the other side of 120.98, and then we head to 122.07 and then 123.32. If that does not happen, then we are headed to 115.06, and at least 118.78 this week.
We got the strong move on the other side of 120.98 and the peak was 122.57.
EUR/USD: Watch for the WS1 at 1.3139 to contain this week, and bring on the correction that has been much talked about. The correction will take this pair to the WR2 at 1.3422.
The peak was 1.3545, as the pair was challenging the WR3. There was no chance of retracement as the pair started the week with a strong spike north.
USD/JPY: A correction should begin the week, but any downside momentum should be limited to my WS2 at 77.11. Upside potential is looking strong all the time, as the pair has its eye riveted back on 78.11, and it could be hit this week.
Pretty much spot on as the peak and dip was 78.27 and 77.28.
GBP/USD: Look for the WS1 at 1.5332 to contain this week. This pair looks weaker than its cousin, the EUR/USD. Any correction should be contained at 1.5868 and take up to 2 weeks to finish.
A mild correction started the week to 1.5457, and then the peak was 1.5778.
USD/CHF: This pair is getting ominously close to a very strong reversal, and that is in spite of it cracking the weekly cloud. The monthly tenken is .9394, but the WR1 at .9354 could contain this week. If we get a strong break through circa .9216, then that will mark the beginning of a very strong correction.
We got that strong break, and the dip was .9065. The week ended by correcting the strong break.
EUR/CHF: I might be through with the talk of hitting the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.2713. Dont be surprised if the recent peak at 1.2439 is going to be it for awhile, as the picture is clearing up for this pair. Look for the WR1 at 1.2349, or the WR2 at 1.2395 to contain this week to bring on a strong move south. The WS2 at 1.2213 is well within range this week.
The peak was 1.2391, and the dip came within 10 pips of the WS2 at 1.2223.
AUD/USD: The correction that is around the corner should be limited to 1.0070. As is the case with many pairs this week the continuing trend should be limited by a 1 and has its eyes on a 2. WS1 is .9611 and WR2 is .9899.
The strong thrust the pair got to start the week jolted it to 1.0328.
USD/CAD: The WR1 is 1.0543, but this pair may not get that high this week. The WS2 at 1.0329 represents a cluster event, and might contain this week.
Similar to the Aussie except going south the dip went well beyond the 2 to 1.0078.
NZD/USD: Downward momentum has waned, and this pair is OS, so it is ready to move north. The WS1 is .7336, but there is room for a slight spike through it, nevertheless, that level should contain. The WR2 at .7552 is well within view.
This pair also had the strong spike to start the week as the peak was .7834.
EUR/GBP: There is still heavy pressure pushing south on this pair. Watch for a reaction at the WS2 at .8501.
We had a strong reversal at .8519, just 18 pips from the WS2.
EUR/JPY: The WR2 is 103.89, which is also a cluster event. The problem with any upward movement is there is a strong push to the south. We could see the WS1 at 102.36 and even the WS2 at 101.85 get hit this week. Reactions at both those areas are worth taking note of. As a crosscheck (Seldom do I do this.), and even though the charts for the EUR/JPY are suggesting a drop to the WS2, it is doubtful well get that low.
The crosscheck proved correct as the dip was only 103.06, and then the pair bolted to 105.67.
GBP/JPY: We need a strong move on the other side of 120.98, and then we head to 122.07 and then 123.32. If that does not happen, then we are headed to 115.06, and at least 118.78 this week.
We got the strong move on the other side of 120.98 and the peak was 122.57.
Weekly S&R's--120411
R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3681 1.3549 1.3470 1.3312 1.3233 -1.3101
usd/jpy 78.95 78.50 78.22 77.68 77.40 -76.95
gbp/usd 1.5916 1.5769 1.5680 1.5504 1.5415 -1.5268
usd/chf 0.9459 0.9348 0.9281 0.9147 0.9080 -0.8969
eur/chf 1.2510 1.2433 1.2386 1.2294 1.2247 -1.2170
aud/usd 1.0679 1.0467 1.0339 1.0083 0.9955 -0.9743
usd/cad 1.0562 1.0393 1.0291 1.0087 0.9985 -0.9816
nzd/usd 0.8138 0.7969 0.7868 0.7664 0.7563 -0.7394
eur/gbp 0.8683 0.8639 0.8612 0.8560 0.8533 -0.8489
eur/jpy 107.05 105.85 105.13 103.69 102.97 -101.77
gbp/jpy 124.30 123.05 122.29 120.79 120.03 -118.78
R3 r2 r1 s1 s2 s3
eur/usd 1.3681 1.3549 1.3470 1.3312 1.3233 -1.3101
usd/jpy 78.95 78.50 78.22 77.68 77.40 -76.95
gbp/usd 1.5916 1.5769 1.5680 1.5504 1.5415 -1.5268
usd/chf 0.9459 0.9348 0.9281 0.9147 0.9080 -0.8969
eur/chf 1.2510 1.2433 1.2386 1.2294 1.2247 -1.2170
aud/usd 1.0679 1.0467 1.0339 1.0083 0.9955 -0.9743
usd/cad 1.0562 1.0393 1.0291 1.0087 0.9985 -0.9816
nzd/usd 0.8138 0.7969 0.7868 0.7664 0.7563 -0.7394
eur/gbp 0.8683 0.8639 0.8612 0.8560 0.8533 -0.8489
eur/jpy 107.05 105.85 105.13 103.69 102.97 -101.77
gbp/jpy 124.30 123.05 122.29 120.79 120.03 -118.78
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