Some of my forecasts
- Thread starter 4xpipcounter
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Agree with you. People can look at the charts in different ways. That is the main reason it is just a probable factor as we have to learn and adjust with the flow.
I can relate these things to the theorems which we actually try to prove by using different variables. It is one of the reasons that many theories have been proven wrong by adding more things to it. I can relate them to this techinical analysis study.
Technical Analysis can only show you a direction of higher probability and it gives definite edge but it is not a full proof thing. However we can make it a full proof by adding few variables like discipline and money management.
I dont mind going long on AUDUSD with a SL on the trendline at 4H.
Regards
Raj
I can relate these things to the theorems which we actually try to prove by using different variables. It is one of the reasons that many theories have been proven wrong by adding more things to it. I can relate them to this techinical analysis study.
Technical Analysis can only show you a direction of higher probability and it gives definite edge but it is not a full proof thing. However we can make it a full proof by adding few variables like discipline and money management.
I dont mind going long on AUDUSD with a SL on the trendline at 4H.
Regards
Raj
Last edited:
Raj, I don't mean to stand up on a platform and take my bows, but I'll still make a point.
There is a reason my Weekly Forecasts (I hope you have been reading them.) are as accurate as they are. I've had one really bad week all year. My Weekly Forecasts, which revolves around the entirety of my methodology, forces me to be accountable each week for everything I say about a market. The methodology, itself, revolves around something much more than price action, or price momentum, or OB/OS conditions, or chart patterns, or candle formations, or _____ (You fill in that blank.). It takes in the total picture.
Also, please note that of late, I've broken a few things down into microcosms. I've been posting my daily picks based solely on OB/OS conditions using one TF at a time.
I've also started to get into my MT forecasts. I'm going to also give an update on those. This is just another aspect of the total picture the methodology takes in.
In other words, I'm not going to give a few forecasts, then run and hide later on.
The point I try to make is to make sure your (blanket statement) trading system is catered to you, is personal, and it involves more than just one aspect of the market. If that is the case, then it no longer becomes something of high probability, but now it is something of a HCR (High Confidence Ratio).
The difference is this. I got a dice game that I play with my grandchildren that I invented, and that my own kids still loves to play. The odds of me winning against the grandchildren could be tilted in my way, but there is never a high confidence in winning. It is only based on probabilities at the time. If I'm playing with my real money and my career is at stake, I don't like messing with mere probability. If it is just a game, then probability is okay.
Look at it from a trader's point of view. Let's say I get 2 rolls for every one of my grandchildren's. Let's say I give myself a loaded pair of dice. As I would add each of these factors to our game in favor of me, it goes merely from probability to a very high confidence that I am going to win.
Someone might say, "That is cheating!" Of course it is! I also look for every advantage I can against the markets. I don't want to play fair. The markets are much bigger than me to begin with. They already started with a distinct advantage, which is why it took so long of paying the price to master my trading. Therefore, I am sill seeking every advantage possible over the markets that I can.
What kind of advantage would I have over my grandchildren if I simply stripped them of the dice and said you cannot use any dice. I would say my confidence has hit its zenith that I am going to win. Use that as a metaphor on the markets.
BTW, I don't cheat with my grandchildren, which is why they beat me a lot in our game.
There is a reason my Weekly Forecasts (I hope you have been reading them.) are as accurate as they are. I've had one really bad week all year. My Weekly Forecasts, which revolves around the entirety of my methodology, forces me to be accountable each week for everything I say about a market. The methodology, itself, revolves around something much more than price action, or price momentum, or OB/OS conditions, or chart patterns, or candle formations, or _____ (You fill in that blank.). It takes in the total picture.
Also, please note that of late, I've broken a few things down into microcosms. I've been posting my daily picks based solely on OB/OS conditions using one TF at a time.
I've also started to get into my MT forecasts. I'm going to also give an update on those. This is just another aspect of the total picture the methodology takes in.
In other words, I'm not going to give a few forecasts, then run and hide later on.
The point I try to make is to make sure your (blanket statement) trading system is catered to you, is personal, and it involves more than just one aspect of the market. If that is the case, then it no longer becomes something of high probability, but now it is something of a HCR (High Confidence Ratio).
The difference is this. I got a dice game that I play with my grandchildren that I invented, and that my own kids still loves to play. The odds of me winning against the grandchildren could be tilted in my way, but there is never a high confidence in winning. It is only based on probabilities at the time. If I'm playing with my real money and my career is at stake, I don't like messing with mere probability. If it is just a game, then probability is okay.
Look at it from a trader's point of view. Let's say I get 2 rolls for every one of my grandchildren's. Let's say I give myself a loaded pair of dice. As I would add each of these factors to our game in favor of me, it goes merely from probability to a very high confidence that I am going to win.
Someone might say, "That is cheating!" Of course it is! I also look for every advantage I can against the markets. I don't want to play fair. The markets are much bigger than me to begin with. They already started with a distinct advantage, which is why it took so long of paying the price to master my trading. Therefore, I am sill seeking every advantage possible over the markets that I can.
What kind of advantage would I have over my grandchildren if I simply stripped them of the dice and said you cannot use any dice. I would say my confidence has hit its zenith that I am going to win. Use that as a metaphor on the markets.
BTW, I don't cheat with my grandchildren, which is why they beat me a lot in our game.
@4xpip, like I mentioned in one of my posts, it is the experience and belief in one particular system, which can help make us good traders.
I have a vague idea of what you propose for the Aud/Usd.
But, in such cases where we get conflicting ideas, how do you suggest that one should go about.
The Daily shows an Inverted HnS, however, the weekly shows a TL break, correction back to TL, and then fresh move towards south, which looks huge.
I have a vague idea of what you propose for the Aud/Usd.
But, in such cases where we get conflicting ideas, how do you suggest that one should go about.
The Daily shows an Inverted HnS, however, the weekly shows a TL break, correction back to TL, and then fresh move towards south, which looks huge.
LTT, the methodology has to be able to spot the dominant TF, which never has to be the higher.
TF's will produce many conflicts. Individual methodologies will provide many conflicts. When there are TF conflicts within one methodology (Personal observation of my own.), there is a bit of a war going on. Thus, you get some tight consolidation, and then when one of the TF's gives up the reign, then you have the strong breakaway.
In the case of the Aussie, there is plenty of upside potential, but even greater downside pressure. There is strong MY magnetism pulling on it both ways. This is why we are still several weeks away from seeing the recent dip at .9387 taken out.
BTW, you also have pointed out the bias that makes the charts say whatever someone wants it to say.
It has helped me in discerning the difference by simply looking at chart with candles and my methodology plotted on it without the name of the market, and without any values. It has even helped to turn the chart upside down to eliminate the bull-bear bias.
TF's will produce many conflicts. Individual methodologies will provide many conflicts. When there are TF conflicts within one methodology (Personal observation of my own.), there is a bit of a war going on. Thus, you get some tight consolidation, and then when one of the TF's gives up the reign, then you have the strong breakaway.
In the case of the Aussie, there is plenty of upside potential, but even greater downside pressure. There is strong MY magnetism pulling on it both ways. This is why we are still several weeks away from seeing the recent dip at .9387 taken out.
BTW, you also have pointed out the bias that makes the charts say whatever someone wants it to say.
It has helped me in discerning the difference by simply looking at chart with candles and my methodology plotted on it without the name of the market, and without any values. It has even helped to turn the chart upside down to eliminate the bull-bear bias.
Weekly S&R's--121111
R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3591 1.3497 1.3441 1.3329 1.3273 -1.3179
USD/JPY 78.63 78.18 77.91 77.37 77.10 -76.65
GBP/USD 1.5877 1.5782 1.5725 1.5611 1.5554 -1.5459
USD/CHF 0.9356 0.9297 0.9261 0.9189 0.9153 -0.9094
EUR/CHF 1.2482 1.2423 1.2387 1.2315 1.2279 -1.2220
AUD/USD 1.0554 1.0401 1.0309 1.0125 1.0033 -0.9880
USD/CAD 1.0381 1.0285 1.0227 1.0111 1.0053 -0.9957
NZD/USD 0.7993 0.7881 0.7814 0.7680 0.7613 -0.7501
EUR/GBP 0.8658 0.8604 0.8572 0.8508 0.8476 -0.8422
EUR/JPY 105.94 105.03 104.48 103.38 102.83 -101.92
GBP/JPY 123.02 122.39 122.02 121.26 120.89 -120.26
The granddaddy of the week, my Weekly Forecast is coming up. If it is not posted by 1:30am IST, then it will be late.
I'm in a play, and it is tonight--4:00am IST.
R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3
EUR/USD 1.3591 1.3497 1.3441 1.3329 1.3273 -1.3179
USD/JPY 78.63 78.18 77.91 77.37 77.10 -76.65
GBP/USD 1.5877 1.5782 1.5725 1.5611 1.5554 -1.5459
USD/CHF 0.9356 0.9297 0.9261 0.9189 0.9153 -0.9094
EUR/CHF 1.2482 1.2423 1.2387 1.2315 1.2279 -1.2220
AUD/USD 1.0554 1.0401 1.0309 1.0125 1.0033 -0.9880
USD/CAD 1.0381 1.0285 1.0227 1.0111 1.0053 -0.9957
NZD/USD 0.7993 0.7881 0.7814 0.7680 0.7613 -0.7501
EUR/GBP 0.8658 0.8604 0.8572 0.8508 0.8476 -0.8422
EUR/JPY 105.94 105.03 104.48 103.38 102.83 -101.92
GBP/JPY 123.02 122.39 122.02 121.26 120.89 -120.26
The granddaddy of the week, my Weekly Forecast is coming up. If it is not posted by 1:30am IST, then it will be late.
I'm in a play, and it is tonight--4:00am IST.
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LTT, it's ironic, but my forecast for the AUD/USD in my Weekly Forecast is going to fall in line with what we talked about concerning "conflicting ideas".
Watch out for it.
The AUD/USD is always the 6th market out of 11 that I do in the Weekly Forecast, so I'm over half way there in an effort to get done on time.
Watch out for it.
The AUD/USD is always the 6th market out of 11 that I do in the Weekly Forecast, so I'm over half way there in an effort to get done on time.
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