Raj, I don't mean to stand up on a platform and take my bows, but I'll still make a point.
There is a reason my Weekly Forecasts (I hope you have been reading them.) are as accurate as they are. I've had one really bad week all year. My Weekly Forecasts, which revolves around the entirety of my methodology, forces me to be accountable each week for everything I say about a market. The methodology, itself, revolves around something much more than price action, or price momentum, or OB/OS conditions, or chart patterns, or candle formations, or _____ (You fill in that blank.). It takes in the total picture.
Also, please note that of late, I've broken a few things down into microcosms. I've been posting my daily picks based solely on OB/OS conditions using one TF at a time.
I've also started to get into my MT forecasts. I'm going to also give an update on those. This is just another aspect of the total picture the methodology takes in.
In other words, I'm not going to give a few forecasts, then run and hide later on.
The point I try to make is to make sure your (blanket statement) trading system is catered to you, is personal, and it involves more than just one aspect of the market. If that is the case, then it no longer becomes something of high probability, but now it is something of a HCR (High Confidence Ratio).
The difference is this. I got a dice game that I play with my grandchildren that I invented, and that my own kids still loves to play. The odds of me winning against the grandchildren could be tilted in my way, but there is never a high confidence in winning. It is only based on probabilities at the time. If I'm playing with my real money and my career is at stake, I don't like messing with mere probability. If it is just a game, then probability is okay.
Look at it from a trader's point of view. Let's say I get 2 rolls for every one of my grandchildren's. Let's say I give myself a loaded pair of dice. As I would add each of these factors to our game in favor of me, it goes merely from probability to a very high confidence that I am going to win.
Someone might say, "That is cheating!" Of course it is! I also look for every advantage I can against the markets. I don't want to play fair. The markets are much bigger than me to begin with. They already started with a distinct advantage, which is why it took so long of paying the price to master my trading. Therefore, I am sill seeking every advantage possible over the markets that I can.
What kind of advantage would I have over my grandchildren if I simply stripped them of the dice and said you cannot use any dice. I would say my confidence has hit its zenith that I am going to win. Use that as a metaphor on the markets.
BTW, I don't cheat with my grandchildren, which is why they beat me a lot in our game.
