Re: Crude Oil
The hourly and 4-hour are clearly bearish, as the candles have broken under the cloud, and the tenken and kijun are in perfect agreement.
You rightly observed the current condition on the weekly and daily. This implies the candles touch support on the top of the clouds, then the hourly and 4-hour are either in for corrections, or the supports on the weekly and daily charts could be the launch pad for the next strong move north, and then there would be trend reversals on the hourly and 4-hour.
The top of the daily cloud at 97.40 marks what I often refer to as a decision point. It will decide the future fate of the market whether it continues from that point towards the 108 level, or it finally breaks through the cloud, and the process continues lower.
The cloud was fresh, but it has been getting beat up of late. That means one of 2 things: Either it finally gives out, or it is saying the market has lost its downward momentum. Doubts will be removed as the cloud has risen where the candles have been having their fun and games, which means now the candles are going to have to make up their mind.
Considering there is now room for the weekly to continue to dip down and still stay above the cloud, and the hourly and 4-hour are still dominant traveling south, it's favored the candle will break through the daily cloud, then head to the bottom, which would be 93.78 by the time it gets there. That figures to be strong S, as the hourly and 4-hour might break the rules of equilibrium to the south, but the weekly will still be above the cloud, as the process looks corrective only on the weekly, because it just barely squeezed out of the cloud.
Crude oil
On hourly charts it is trading below the cloud, Tenken and Kijun. Tenken is flat while kinjun is dipping steeply downwards. Cloud is will be offering resistance between 99.45 to 100.14 for any move on the upside. Tenken and kinjun may start moving Down soon along with price and as such will also act as reistence for the upmove.
On 4 hourly charts it is trading below the cloud and Kijun level with Tenken level still above Kinjun and any cross that may happen will be below the cloud in another 24 hours. So structure is bearish on 4 hourly chart.
On Daily Charts we are Above the cloud but tenken has just crossed Kijun. However tenken is flat while kijun is still moving upwards. Cloud will provide support at 97.63 level for any move Downside.
On weekly Charts It is Above the Cloud, above tenken and above Kijun. Kijun is however flat and the cloud has turnrd bearish in the recent past. Cloud boundry in the current week is at 97.89 and otherside is at 92.78
From the above we can assume that anymove downwards breaking the level of 97.63 will pave way for atleast move till 92.78 (other side of the cloud) on weekly chart.
Considering these facts shall we take the trade on the downside immediately after the cross of tenken/Kijun on four hourly chart with stoploss of kijun level on Daily chart which may be arroud 100+
Reasons for the trade
1. Hourly chart totally bearish all the levels nicely aligned Chikou is also below the price
2. 4 Hourly chart totally bearish all the levels nicely aligned Chikou is also below the price
3. Daily Chart - Kijun cross Tenken and any move down can hit the top of cloud soon, Cloud is also getting thinner
4. On weekly Chart Price is just above the cloud and cloud has already turned bearish into th future. Chikou is also interacting with the price. Kijun is far below at 89 and is flat cloud supporting is also flat bottomed
What other things we must see in this trade
Regards