The answer is "yes". The only problem with the rationale is the tenken and kijun make lousy momentum indicators. The jaw is going to start clamping shut as soon as there is a pullback. I mentioned this in the 1st insertion of the ichi series that the tenken and kijun are figured based on the half way points.
The default settings are 9 for the tenken and 26 for the kijun. So, as soon as there is a pullback the peak stays stable, while the bottom rises for the tenken, so it will increase ever so slightly. 9 candles later everything catches up and so it starts dipping.
The kijun is going to be seen a little differently on a pullback. The kijun will most likely continue to rise, because if the dip began at an actual peak, then the dip 26 candles back is probably rising, so the kijun is rising during the pullback. Also, keep in mind, 26 is the proximity of a completed cycle within any TF. So, in theory, the kijun would keep rising until the peak that started the dip was realized. That's in theory and in an ideal world. Nothing is ideal in trading, and so we have to work at constantly perfecting our methodology.
Here's another measure of equilibrium the cloud will help us with.
Look at the chart you just posted. How often do you find the tenken has drifted that far from the kijun? Look at any TF, any market and answer the same question.
You would have to say it does not happen often. So, we must conclude it's jaw will clamp shut.
There is also a way of evaluating which way the market will go in order for it to clamp shut. Count 26 candles back, or for that matter, you can take a cursory glance at the chart and see this next point. Was there a strong rejection candle within the last 26 candles. In other words, is there a candle that has an extra long wick? If the answer is "no", then there was some recent strong one-way action. If you look at the last 9 candles you will see a couple of strong spikes and a couple so unusually long bull candles. If I had the data in front of me and I could plot it on my spreadsheet, I bet those candles would be at least a sigma 2 on the standard deviation of the last year.
A trend, even a freight train, cannot continue at that pace forever. It will go sideways or even the opposite direction. Once the market has attained some equilibrium, then it could be ready to get back in the trend.
The one way thing we know is with the kijun leveling on top of the cloud, it means that area is strong S, as it also equates to a strong congestion area.
The default settings are 9 for the tenken and 26 for the kijun. So, as soon as there is a pullback the peak stays stable, while the bottom rises for the tenken, so it will increase ever so slightly. 9 candles later everything catches up and so it starts dipping.
The kijun is going to be seen a little differently on a pullback. The kijun will most likely continue to rise, because if the dip began at an actual peak, then the dip 26 candles back is probably rising, so the kijun is rising during the pullback. Also, keep in mind, 26 is the proximity of a completed cycle within any TF. So, in theory, the kijun would keep rising until the peak that started the dip was realized. That's in theory and in an ideal world. Nothing is ideal in trading, and so we have to work at constantly perfecting our methodology.
Here's another measure of equilibrium the cloud will help us with.
Look at the chart you just posted. How often do you find the tenken has drifted that far from the kijun? Look at any TF, any market and answer the same question.
You would have to say it does not happen often. So, we must conclude it's jaw will clamp shut.
There is also a way of evaluating which way the market will go in order for it to clamp shut. Count 26 candles back, or for that matter, you can take a cursory glance at the chart and see this next point. Was there a strong rejection candle within the last 26 candles. In other words, is there a candle that has an extra long wick? If the answer is "no", then there was some recent strong one-way action. If you look at the last 9 candles you will see a couple of strong spikes and a couple so unusually long bull candles. If I had the data in front of me and I could plot it on my spreadsheet, I bet those candles would be at least a sigma 2 on the standard deviation of the last year.
A trend, even a freight train, cannot continue at that pace forever. It will go sideways or even the opposite direction. Once the market has attained some equilibrium, then it could be ready to get back in the trend.
The one way thing we know is with the kijun leveling on top of the cloud, it means that area is strong S, as it also equates to a strong congestion area.
Pips, a few words about this please. It is the Bank index. Kijun kissing the top of clouds and the TK combo still in open mouth position. Will the jaw clamp shut ??
