Weekly Review--021212
EUR/USD: With last weeks strong reversal, it may have signaled the end of the MT correction, which means my MT forecast would be off by close to 200 pips. That is still not confirmed, but what is confirmed is that the DOWN will continue this week. It is doubtful the WR1 at 1.3277 will be hit this week, but the correction will continue north to start the week. To the south, we have the WS2 at 1.3033 to look forward to. Watch for a reaction at that point. If we get too far past it, then were going to the low-1.2900s.
The WR1 did get hit as the peak was 6 pips on the other side at 1.3283. The reversal dropped the pair past the WS2 and to the bottom of the daily cloud / kijun combo at 1.3274.
USD/JPY: This pattern ended last week in a pattern of consolidation after a strong move north. Another leg north should be the order of things to start the week. The level to watch for is the WR2 at 78.35. If it is touched, then this pair could be on its way to the 79.00s. This pair has been in a super funk for 6 months. The only to come out of it is for the move to continue north to around 81.00. If that happens, then we could get the OB condition we need to send this pair scampering for another leg south on the LT radar.
The WR2 was touched, and there was a strong move afterward to the peak at 79.61.
GBP/USD: There is little doubt the correction is over for this pair. It has the WS2 at 1.5644 on the radar this week, and it should go even much lower.
This pair did not go nay lower as the dip was exactly 1.5644.
USD/CHF: The bottom of the hourly cloud is .9117, which ties in perfectly with the WS1, and it should contain this week. Watch out for the WR2 at .9258. Any kind of a strong spike through it, then we are headed back to the top of the cloud / kijun combo at .9354.
We got a slight move on the other side of the cluster S as the dip was .9102. The pair broke the WR2, but got stopped on the way UP at .9299.
AUD/USD: There is an R zone on the 4-hour between 1.07271.0744. That should contain any moves to the north. Once back in the DOWN, this pair should hit the MS1 at 1.0641.
The pair broke through the cluster event to 1.0778 at the beginning of the week. Then it headed to the dip at 1.0628, and then with the cluster event dented, the next reversal went higher yet to 1.0798.
USD/CAD: There are quite a few 2s this week signaling high acceleration if they are so much as touched, and this is another one of those pairs. The WR2 is 1.0076, and if it is touched, then we can put 1.0206 on the radar. The pair reversed its fortunes to end last week, and it should continue south this week. There is a major ST cluster event at .9981. It needs to contain, and most likely will.
The pair did fall short of 1.0076 as the peak was only 1.0050, so the latter was not put on the radar. The cluster event was broken to the south as the dip was .9937.
NZD/USD: This pair put on a show to end last week, and all the indications are there it is now going much lower. The WR1 is .8304, but this pair senses no urgency to correct that far. The WS2 at .8179 is on the radar this week. MT, it has the daily kijun at .8086 in its sights.
I missed this one. The pair started off the week in high gear to the peak at .8421. The reversal on landed at .8244, just 14 pips below the WP.
EUR/GBP: The 4-hour cloud top/ WS1 combo at .8336 should contain the move north that end last week and will probably continue this week. As a matter a fact, a very strong move towards the weekly kijun at .8552 could be expected. This week look for the WR2 at .8454 to be hit, and the pair could continue its march beyond that.
The pair started the week to the peak at .8401, and then reversed to the dip at .8276.
EUR/JPY: The move south that ended last week will go deeper this week. It does not appear it is ready to reverse, but may have entered an extended consolidation phase. Ideal containment is 101.21, but it could go to 100.78. Anything below the latter, and then it gets ugly for future direction.
Even though the dip this week was 101.81, the consolidative move went east after that. After the next attempt to hit the dip bottomed at 101.91, then is was straight north to the peak at 104.66.
GBP/JPY: The daily tenken at 121.37 needs to hold if this pair will continue higher. A move north to start the week towards ichimoku cluster R at 122.59. As long as it holds, then there is no reason to believe that 121.37 will, and so like its cousin, the EUR/JPY some consolidation could be the order of the day.
The initial move north was contained at 122.91, which gave a sign of thing to come. The reversal headed to the dip at 121.66, and then it was high gear to the peak at 126.04.
EUR/AUD: I got this pair back on my watch list. This pair gave the appearance it is back on its MT track going south, but I doubt that will be the case. Containment heading south should be the 4-hour kijun at 1.2275. Afterward the move north should be back on track. Watch for reaction at the WR2 at 1.2442. It will probably contain this week, but if there is a very strong bounce off it, then it could be back to the drawing board for this pair, and that also is doubtful. By next week, this pair should be approaching the weekly tenken at 1.2684.
The pair never came close to the WR2 as the peak was 1.2374. Afterward, the trip south took the pair to the dip at 1.2147.